Elections can be brutal.
They leave politicians with nowhere to hide.
For Sir Keir Starmer, Friday, May 8, is threatening to be a day of reckoning if, as expected, Labour suffers heavy losses across Britain.
The results of Thursday’s local elections in England, for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly will come in over several days.
But by Friday afternoon it should be clear whether Labour is staring at an electoral bruising, a nightmare, a catastrophe or political Armageddon.
Crucially, it is not only the Prime Minister whose future is at stake.
These elections will almost certainly mean seismic change in how London is governed, and probably for the worse rather than the better.
London is Labour’s stronghold and for decades it has run the majority of the capital’s boroughs.
It is not yet clear how many councils Zack Polanski’s Greens and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK will win, though the latter has already effectively declared victory in Havering, in east Outer London.
But the Green and Reform squeeze on the two traditional main parties looks set to leave a string of councils in no overall control.
Paralysis, gridlock, horse-trading, coalitions could dog these boroughs for the next four years.
Professor Tony Travers, director of LSE London, told the Standard that “unprecedented change faces London’s borough government”.
He explained: “The surge of the Greens and Reform, coupled with the falling Labour and Conservative vote, will produce many more councils with no majority control.
“Such an outcome will make governing more difficult.”
What does this mean in practice?
Key decisions on plans for desperately-needed new homes, for example, or on major licensing applications, could be delayed or rejected.
A council with a comfortable majority can push through controversial proposals.
A borough controlled by a fragile coalition of several parties is likely to find doing so far more difficult.
Opposing developments is often popular locally but can harm the longer term interests of boroughs or the capital.
The rise of the Greens and Reform in London, though, may also bring benefits.
One-party state councils, whether they are Labour or Tory, are vulnerable to being stuck in the past, clinging to the status quo and failing to modernise, particularly in an AI era.
In the worst cases, they may also be a breeding ground for corruption or shocking failures, such as with some Labour councils in northern England over the grooming gangs scandal.
So the Greens and Reform are likely to inject fresh ideas and new thinking into London local government, possibly with new ways to tackle inequality or to cut wasteful spending.
However, certainly at this stage, the arrival of the two parties is expected to lead to more divisive politics.
Reform, with Mr Farage at the helm, is out to destroy the Tories and Mr Polanski’s Greens are seeking to usurp Labour as the major party on the Left.
So coalitions with either of them may be more difficult to cobble together, or to last very long.
Longer term, in the new era of five-party politics, German-style collaborative government may emerge.
But in the immediate future the spotlight will bear down mercilessly on Sir Keir, within hours of the polls closing at 10pm on Thursday, and whether he can survive as Prime Minister.
Labour has yet to resolve its dilemma, if not Keir who?
All the potential candidates to replace him, former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns all have their flaws or leadership hurdles to overcome.
There is no one waiting in the wings to take over as PM.
But political coups can take on a momentum of their own.
When the dam bursts, the dam bursts.
With Labour set to lose power in Wales, facing a hammering in Scotland and heavy losses in the English local elections, Sir Keir’s fate could be decided in a political frenzy at Westminster.
Some political experts believe Labour may do better than expected in London, with the Tories appearing far from confident of winning back Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet.
But Labour MPs, and possibly Cabinet ministers, may still move against Sir Keir as they count up the votes in their part of the country and realise they could lose their seat at the next general election.
Unlike the Conservatives, Labour has little history of toppling its leaders and has pilloried the Tories for the prime ministerial chaos and psychodramas of the Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak years.
Self-preservation, though, really focuses the mind of MPs and more are likely to be willing to gamble on the unknown rather than stick with the Starmer status quo.
The question then is whether a Labour revolt gains an unstoppable head of steam.
If Sir Keir does go, it could have significant implications for London.
The current Government is noticeably London-centric.
Sir Keir is MP for Holborn and St Pancras.
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy, also Justice Secretary, is Tottenham MP and Mr Streeting MP for Ilford North.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves may be MP for Leeds West and Pudsey but she is far more south London than west Yorkshire.
Mr Miliband is full-on north London, even though he is MP for Doncaster North.
Communities Secretary Steve Reed is MP for Streatham and Croydon North.
As ministers sought to woo Reform-leaning voters, they faced accusations of being “anti-London” as billions of pounds of spending was diverted to the North and Midlands.
But Starmer’s Government still has deep London roots and with Labour voters increasingly in cities, it is adopting more policies, such as on closer EU ties, in tune with the capital.
If Ms Rayner took over in No10, for example, and the Government shifted to the Left, taxes could rise even higher, impacting most on London.
The redistribution of public spending away from the capital could be speeded up, with implications across the board including for transport, housing and council tax in the city.
A more anti-business approach could emerge in the corridors of power.
So as Londoners head to the polling stations, rarely have local elections carried such importance for the Prime Minister and the capital’s future.
