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Evening Standard
Evening Standard
Politics
Rachael Burford

Local elections 2026: Labour to lose 75% of council seats, polling guru predicts

Labour will lose more than 75 per cent of the council seats the party is defending across the country in the upcoming local elections, a polling guru has predicted.

Lord Hayward said Sir Keir Starmer's party will be down some 1,850 councillors after the polls close on May 7.

On Thursday, the Labour mayor of North East England said if the polls are correct, the Prime Minister will have to " take it as a wake-up call" and change the direction of his government.

Kim McGuinness told Times Radio that she did not "think it's impossible" for Sir Keir to remain Labour leader after devastating loses, but added: "I do think he has got to take it as a wake-up call, and the turnaround has to happen.

"There has to be a real recognition that people do not feel listened to, do not feel understood, do not feel like the government is delivering on their priorities, and that has to change.

“I think there's that awareness, I think they know that, but now it has to happen."

Hayes and Harlington Labour MP John McDonnell said he expected the Prime Minister to "stumble on" after the vote because "I don't think there's a viable challenge to him at the moment".

Labour is defending more than 2,550 seats in the elections on May 7, where voters will go to the polls to elect their local authority representatives across England, including in London, as well as parliamentary representatives in the devolved administrations in Wales and Scotland.

Conservative peer and pollster Lord Hayward described his prediction as “bad news” for the Prime Minister, who already finds himself in dogged by scandal over Peter Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador, and whose popularity continues to trail behind other party leaders in opinion polls.

But Labour is not the only mainstream party set to suffer big losses Lord Hayward said, predicting that Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives will lose 600 seats.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (PA)

In London, the Green Party is expected to be the main beneficiary of Sir Keir’s nosediving popularity.

Zack Polanski's party will gain 500 seats, largely in the capital and traditionally middle class areas of other major cities, Lord Hayward said, while the Liberal Democrats are set to make gains of around 150 seats.

Reform UK is expected to be the main beneficiary outside of the capital at both of the two major parties’ expense.

Nigel Farage's party will gain some 1,550 seats, largely in white working class areas outside of London, Lord Hayward predicted.

In Wales, Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, will be the largest party in terms of both votes and seats in the Senedd after 26 years of Labour dominance, he said.

Zack Polanski’s Green Party is expected to win hundreds of seats in London at the May local elections (PA)

However, different opinion polls have disagreed on the outcome in Wales, with some placing Plaid ahead and others suggesting Reform will be the largest party.

In Scotland, Lord Hayward predicted that the SNP will be just short of a majority in the Holyrood Parliament.

Ahead of the polls, the Prime Minister’s political spokesman said: “This local election comes down to a simple choice: Labour on your side, with your local Labour council working in partnership with a Labour Government, or Nigel Farage and Reform who would put your family, your NHS and your community at risk.”

Asked about Sir Keir’s message to MPs who may be confronted with dire results, the spokesman declined to “get ahead” of the outcome, and highlighted the Government’s record on “giving more rights to workers”, taking parts of the public realm back into public ownership, investing in public services and fighting child poverty.

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