Only once every four years do residents have their say on who runs South Gloucestershire Council – and that happens on Thursday, May 4, with the Conservatives defending a narrow majority. But with the party languishing in national opinion polls, they face a real challenge to retain control of the authority – though it wouldn’t be the first time.
The district bucked the trend at the last elections in 2019 when the Tories were voted back in fairly comfortably as the biggest group in the chamber with 33 members and 42 per cent of the total vote, while Conservative administrations at North Somerset and Bath & North East Somerset councils were swept aside, blaming the Government’s unpopularity. This time it means if they end up with just three fewer South Gloucestershire councillors, the authority would fall into no overall control and would be run either by a minority administration or a coalition.
The Lib Dems are currently the second biggest group with 17 members, having received 32 per cent of support from the electorate four years ago, but nationally are polling around 11 per cent. Labour are the only other group represented on the local authority with 11 councillors, from a 21 per cent share of the vote four years ago, yet the party has around 49 per cent approval according to the latest UK voting intentions – more than 20 points ahead of the Tories.
Read more: May local elections: South Gloucestershire Council dates and candidates list in full
So, with all 61 seats in the 28 wards up for grabs, where are the main battlegrounds that could see power change hands? Which are being targeted by the political groups to try to reach the magic number of 31 councillors that would give them an overall majority?
And where does your vote matter most? Both the Conservatives and Lib Dems are contesting every seat, Labour is standing 43 candidates, the Greens 16 while there are six independents – including two incumbent Tories challenging their former party – along with two from Reform UK and one for the National Housing Party No More Refugees.
The difficulty for the Lib Dems is that they are defending some narrow contests from potential Conservative gains while there are no obvious easy pick-ups for them from the ruling group. The most marginal ward of all is Filton, which is the only one to have councillors from more than one party – one Labour, one Tory – and where one of the two seats has a majority of just one vote.
Labour’s Adam Monk finished first in 2019 with 769 votes (17.4 per cent) followed by Conservative Chris Wood on 739 (16.72 per cent), scraping in ahead of Labour’s other candidate Ian Scott, on 738, who this year is standing in outgoing group leader Pat Rooney’s Woodstock ward. It would need only a 0.02 per cent swing from the Tories to Labour to turn the ward all-red.
The wildcard factor here is that while the Tories’ other, unsuccessful candidate was some way off third place with 587 votes (13 per cent) in fourth, next came UKIP. Although that party is not contesting any seats in South Gloucestershire on May 4, neither of the hopefuls for Reform UK – widely seen as the UK Independence Party’s successor – are standing in Filton.
It could mean the destination of the 625 total votes received by UKIP’s two ward candidates in 2019 could decide who triumphs in such a tight race, which also includes two Lib Dems, two Greens and an independent. Roles are reversed in New Cheltenham, with the Conservatives targeting Labour’s two seats.
The second-placed Labour candidate four years ago got 756 votes, just 16 ahead of the third-placed Tory, so a swing of only 0.47 per cent to the Conservatives will see them take the seat, with a bigger shift in voting handing them both. In Charlton & Cribbs, Labour needs a two per cent swing from the Conservatives to pick up one of the ruling party’s three seats.
The Tory candidate who was elected in third position received 497 votes (13 per cent) – 94 more than the fourth-placed Labour hopeful (11 per cent). Three Lib Dems and two independents are also standing here.
Next on Labour’s hit-list is Emersons Green, which also elects three councillors. A three per cent swing would be enough to oust the third-placed Conservative who was backed by 1,305 residents (15 per cent) in 2019, although this amounts to the best part of 300 votes.
The required swing for Labour to replace the lowest-polling incumbents in both Parkwall & Warmley and Stoke Gifford is five per cent. In Frenchay & Downend, the 2019 result suggests the Tories, who claimed all three seats, have a six-point lead ahead of Labour and eight points over the Lib Dems.
But Tory Cllr Jon Hunt’s resignation through ill-health forced a by-election in 2021, and although the Conservatives held the seat, the Lib Dems soared past Labour into second, reducing the required swing for them to five per cent. A seven per cent swing from the Tories is needed for the Lib Dems to take a seat in Boyd Valley, with the target being eight per cent in both Severn Vale and Bradley Stoke North, where one of the two incumbents, Sarah Pomfret, has changed allegiance from Conservative to independent.
The Tories’ best chance of replacing a Lib Dem is in Chipping Sodbury & Cotswold Edge where only 12 votes (0.19 per cent) separated the second-placed candidate from the third in 2019. Lib Dems hold all three seats in Frampton Cotterell, including group leader Claire Young, but a two-point swing to the Conservatives will see one of those change hands, although this equates to 265 votes.
Labour holds both Kingswood seats but the Conservatives would take one with a four per cent swing – the second-placed Labour candidate was voted in just 94 votes ahead of the third-placed Tory four years ago. And although Patchway Coniston appears a safe Labour seat, UKIP, who have no one on the ballot paper this time, took second in 2019, one point ahead of the Conservatives who need to overcome a 100-vote deficit from Labour.
In Staple Hill & Mangotsfield, the Tories require a six point swing from Labour to take one of their three seats. The Conservatives require a four per cent swing to take one of the two red seats in Woodstock, which was Labour group leader Pat Rooney’s ward.
Council and Tory group leader Toby Savage is also stepping down, and while the party has a healthy 14-point lead over Labour in his Longwell Green ward, the other Conservative incumbent Christine Price is standing against her old party as an independent. She received 1,545 votes and topped the poll at the last election – 176 more than Cllr Savage who stood as council leader.
The Tories have been in power since winning an overall majority for the first time at the 2015 elections. There was a Lib Dem/Labour-led committee system between 2012 and 2015 following five years when the Conservatives led a minority administration from 2007.
Read next:
Expert predicts South Gloucestershire Council ruling Tories face fight to stay in power
South Gloucestershire Council local elections 2023: Who could be the new leader
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