Liz Truss is on course for a “clear victory” over Rishi Sunak in the Tory leadership contest but by a tighter margin than expected, according to a Conservative pollster.
Foreign Secretary Ms Truss is the frontrunner to replace Boris Johnson and some polls of party members have suggested her lead could have been at least 30 percentage points.
Lord Hayward, a former MP and current Tory peer, said he is not convinced Ms Truss’s victory will be by such an emphatic margin but she remains on course to become the next prime minister.
He added a tighter win will mean it is “absolutely necessary” for Ms Truss to appoint a cabinet that brings together all sides of the Tory parliamentary party.
Voting in the Conservative Party leadership contest closes at 5pm on Friday, with Mr Johnson’s successor announced on Monday and taking over as prime minister the following day.
Lord Hayward told the PA news agency: “My overall sense is Liz Truss will win but I am not convinced it will be by the margin that the polls are predicting.
“It will be clear, she will have a clear victory, but I would be surprised if it’s by the margin the polls are predicting.”
He said his prediction of a tighter margin of victory for Ms Truss is rooted in the conversations he has had with those who have attended the hustings.
On how the campaign has played out, Lord Hayward said: “The party and the individuals will be bruised by the experience, there’s no question, and it will take time to recover.
“At the moment it appears from all the leaks that all the positions seem to be going to Truss supporters in the cabinet.
If there's a narrower margin of victory it is absolutely necessary that right at the top the sides are brought together— Lord Hayward
“Now that would be bad even if there was a very clear margin of victory, but if there’s a narrower margin of victory it is absolutely necessary that right at the top the sides are brought together.
“Liz Truss starts off with a disadvantage which has faced a number of other politicians in their time – the most recent one being probably Jeremy Corbyn – in that she doesn’t necessarily have the automatic support of the majority of her parliamentary party.”
Mr Sunak has consistently acknowledged he is the underdog and his supporters continue to hope he can cause a surprise.
Kevin Hollinrake, Conservative MP for Thirsk and Malton, told Sky News: “I’ve seen some of the polls and national polls. I think it’s quite hard for pollsters to determine who is a Conservative member and who is not because there’s not an open database.
“But I know who mine are. I polled my 700 members, 239 of them responded, so about a third of them responded, and Rishi got an eight-point lead.
“I’ve seen similar kind of polls around different constituencies around the country. So I don’t think he’s cut and dried. I think he’s probably neck and neck.”
The leadership contest has been characterised by infighting among Conservative MPs, with blue-on-blue attacks continuing up until the final days.
Mr Johnson has sought to use his final weeks to outline what he perceives to be his legacy from his time in Downing Street.
His term of office was rocked by the partygate scandal and was ultimately brought to an end over how he handled allegations of inappropriate behaviour by former Conservative whip Chris Pincher.
Fresh allegations of misconduct were brought to light on Thursday night, with Sky News reporting one woman had been assaulted by a Cabinet minister, while another was groped by a senior No 10 aide.
Mr Johnson and his successor will then go to Balmoral rather than Buckingham Palace for the appointment of the new prime minister, in a break from tradition.
The Queen will receive Mr Johnson on Tuesday September 6 at her Aberdeenshire home, where he will formally tender his resignation.
This will be followed by an audience with the new Tory leader, where she or he will be invited to form a government.
