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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Boris Johnson says UK defence spending set to rise to 2.5% of GDP by end of decade – as it happened

Scottish government says its £65m contribution to military aid to Ukraine must be one off, not thin end of wedge

The Scottish government has said it has reluctantly agreed to allow its budgets to be used towards funding extra military aid for Ukraine, after UK ministers asked the devolved government to contribute £65m towards the new £1bn fund.

Kate Forbes, the Scottish finance and economy secretary, said:

This further funding is to assist Ukrainian armed forces to fight Russian aggression and the unspeakable brutality being perpetrated.

We have agreed to providing funding on this occasion given the clear need to maximise the international effort to support Ukraine. However, we are clear that this must not be seen as any kind of precedent which leads to devolved budgets being used to help pay for clearly reserved policy areas.

The Welsh government also expressed reservations about this request, and said it too had reluctantly agreed because of the significance of the crisis. (See 2.27pm.) Nicola Sturgeon’s chief spokesman said today it was worried that ministers in London may feel other devolved funds could be raided in future to fund UK-level policies normally paid for by the UK government. He said:

We don’t want this to be the thin end of a wedge which you’ll regularly or semi-regularly sees devolved budgets used for clearly reserved matters because Scotland clearly doesn’t receive funding for foreign affairs and defence, but devolved Scottish funding is being used for foreign affairs and defence. So it’s, I don’t think it’s ever happened. We regard it as a one off.

The government said the chief secretary to the Treasury asked devolved authorities and all the UK’s government departments to either offer up a contribution or to take a reduction in the consequentials provided as part of the block grant from the UK government. The Scottish government said it took £65m from its own capital reserves, carried forward from last year’s budget.

Updated

Blair says Labour has to assure people it's 'safe alternative' in order to win next election

The Future of Britain conference, organised by Tony Blair as part of the Britain Project, his initiative to champion progressive, cross-party, centrist politics, has just finished. At one point there were suspicions that it was the springboard for the launch of a new Macron-style party, but in the end the speaker list was relatively second division and in a Q&A at the end of the day Blair said he did not expect the two-party model of British politics to change. But he did offer some advice to Keir Starmer, as well as declaring that he would be touting his centrist policy agenda to anyone interested. Here are the main points.

  • Blair said that it would be vital for Labour at the next election to assure people who might not vote for the party that it would be a safe alternative. Referring to the Lib Dem victory in the Tiverton and Honiton byelection last week, Blair said at the next election Labour needed those voters to stick with the Lib Dems. And that meant they had to be comfortable with the idea of a Labour government. He went on:

Those people have got to be comfortable with the prospect of a Labour government. Doesn’t mean to say they’re all going to vote Labour, I’m not saying that ...

One of the things that I always used to try and do when I was leader of the opposition was, I wanted to make it as easy as possible for people to make that journey [to backing Labour]. For Labour, the big challenge is when people come to what is always a big decision for a country, to change its government, people have got to think: ‘You know, I think the other lot deserve to be put out. And these guys are a safe alternative.’

  • He said Keir Starmer had done “an amazing job” in pulling Labour back from where it was in 2019. When it was put to him that Labour modernisation still had a long way to go, and that it was at the 1989 stage on the (1979-97) route to power, Blair said he he thought the party had progressed “a lot further” than that. He also said Starmer’s starting point was worse than his. Blair said: “To be fair to Keir, I took the Labour party over after Neil Kinnock and John Smith. He’s had a tougher time of it, mentioning no names. So I think he’s done an immense job in taking it this far.”
  • But Blair said Labour needed a clearer policy agenda. He said:

The fact is, for Labour to win the next election, it’s got to have a policy agenda that’s absolutely clear.

Now, it has done a huge amount of work. But for Labour, if it wants to seal the deal with the British people, then I think it’s going to be all about policy and expressing through policy the fact that this is a Labour party prepared to reach out beyond its traditional base and pull in people who may be voting Liberal Democrat, some people may be soft Tories.

  • He said he hoped the Labour party would adopt the policies promoted by his thinktank. Asked why he did not set up his own party, he said Britain had a system with two main parties, and he did not see that changing. But he went on:

But let me tell you, from the point of view of the Labour party, my political party, I hope they take this agenda.

We published the paper on the health service yesterday, we’ve got one on education coming, another on asylum and immigration. I want to build a strong policy agenda. And then it’s there for reasonable people - whether they’re Conservative party, Labour party, the Lib Dems whatever - to take it up.

Tony Blair speaking at the Future of Britain conference
Tony Blair speaking at the Future of Britain conference. Photograph: Future of Britain conference

Updated

The Conservative MP Julian Lewis, who chairs parliament’s intelligence and security committee, has described Boris Johnson promise to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030 as “feeble”. Lewis accused Johnson of “an inability or unwillingness to face up to the gravity of the current crisis”.

Nadine Dorries mistakes rugby league for union code at World Cup event

Nadine Dorries, the culture secretary, stunned a rugby league audience by confusing the 13-player game with the rival code, PA Media reports.

Mike Amesbury resigns as Labour frontbencher to give 'louder voice' to his constituents

The Labour MP Mike Amesbury has announced he has resigned as a shadow local government minister. In his resignation letter, Amesbury, who represents Weaver Vale in Cheshire, which he held with a majority of just 562 at the last election, says he wants to be able to devote more time to representing his constituents. He says:

As inflation bites, I will stand shoulder to shoulder with all whose only ask is a fair deal for them and their families. I intend to provide this support and voice from the back benches ...

I secured my marginal seat from the Tories in 2017 and retained it in very challenging circumstances in 2019. At both elections I promised that I would put my constituents first. I believe that if I am to continue to do so, I am not able to give the role of shadow local government minister the energy it demands and deserves ...

The combination of a decade of Tory austerity, the impact of the pandemic and now soaring living costs have all meant a sustained increase in the number of constituents needing my help.

I will now give them an even louder voice in the community and in parliament.

Amesbury does not mention the rail strike in his letter. But he expressed support for the striking rail workers last week, and the reference to standing “shoulder to shoulder” with workers asking for a fair deal may be a reference to unhappiness with Keir Starmer’s instruction to frontbenchers not to join RMT picket lines.

Updated

Labour has accused Boris Johnson of postponing “difficult decisions” about the defence budget. Responding to Johnson’s announcement that he wants it to rise to 2.5% of GDP by the end of the decade, John Healey, the shadow defence secretary, said:

Britain deserves better than ministers rowing in public over defence spending throughout this Nato summit. We should have seen UK leadership as Nato acts to strengthen European defences.

With war in Europe and the threats growing, Britain needs to reboot defence planning now - not duck difficult decisions until the end of the decade.

No one thinks the prime minister will be around to keep this 2030 pledge.

Labour has called for a “post 9/11” increase in defence spending, but it has not set out details.

Updated

45% of Britons say Brexit has made daily life worse, and only 17% say it's made it better, poll suggests

Almost half of Britons (45%) think Brexit has made daily life worse, new polling from Ipsos Mori suggests. Fewer than one person in five (17%) thinks it has made daily life better.

Both figures have gone up quite a lot since last summer, because the proportion of people saying Brexit has made no difference has shrunk. But 34% of people are still saying its impact has been neutral.

Polling on Brexit
Polling on Brexit. Photograph: Ipsos Mori

More than a quarter of leave voters (26%) says Brexit has made their daily life better. But 22% says it has made life worse, and 48% say it has made no difference.

Polling on Brexit
Polling on Brexit Photograph: Ipsos Mori

Updated

Tobias Ellwood, the Conservative chair of the Commons defence committee, has said increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030 (see 1.52pm) is “too little too late”.

UK firms tell Rishi Sunak: time running out to save UK plc from perfect storm

Rishi Sunak has been warned the government is running out of time to save the economy amid a rapidly worsening growth outlook and soaring inflation hitting businesses, my colleague Richard Partington reports.

Rishi Sunak at the BCC annual global conference this morning.
Rishi Sunak at the BCC annual global conference this morning. Photograph: Yui Mok/PA

This is from Bridget Phillipson, the shadow education secretary, on the government’s decision to drop clauses from the schools bill that would threaten the autonomy of academies. (See 2.10pm.)

This is a major climbdown from Nadhim Zahawi and confirms this chaotic government has no plan to drive-up standards in our schools and improve outcomes for our children.

Just days ago the schools minister was told the Commons these were important provisions. Now the government has binned them. The Conservatives are in a mess trying to rush through laws to avoid scrutiny and distract from their own incompetence.

And here is our story on the move by my colleague Richard Adams.

Tony Blair says Labour has ‘recovered’ as he dismisses need for new party

Tony Blair has dismissed the need for a new political party, saying Labour has “recovered” under Keir Starmer but needs a clearer sense of direction to win the next general election. My colleague Aubrey Allegretti has the story here.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, has thanked Boris Johnson for the £1bn in military aid for his country announced today.

Welsh government expresses concern about £30m being taken out of its budget to fund UK military aid for Ukraine

The Welsh government has expressed concern that more than £30m is being taken out its budget to go towards the £1bn the UK is sending to Ukraine for military aid.

Rebecca Evans, the Welsh finance minister, insisted her government was determined to support the Ukrainian people and had made asubstantial contribution” to the humanitarian effort. She said:

We will continue to provide humanitarian support to the Ukrainian people, and it is right the UK should continue to provide much-needed military support.

But she said it was “novel, worrying and potentially divisive” that the Treasury was seeking to use devolved budgets to fund reserved spending areas such as military aid and defence.

She said these funds should be spent on devolved areas such as health and education, adding: “This will result in challenging decisions to be made about our limited capital budget.”

Evans went on:

Ultimately, because of the exceptional circumstances, we have accepted this situation in light of our ongoing commitment to support Ukraine and the Ukrainian people in their fight against this senseless act of aggression, but it should not be a precedent.

Rebecca Evans.
Rebecca Evans. Photograph: Eleanor Cunningham/PA

Updated

Alex Cole-Hamilton, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, is writing to Nicola Sturgeon pressing for full disclosure of the Queen’s advance access to Holyrood legislation after the Guardian revealed bills were “almost certainly” changed to suit the monarch’s personal interests.

The Scottish government has refused to release letters from the Queen’s representatives about their lobbying, despite evidence compiled by the Guardian that at least 67 Holyrood bills have been subject to her veto, under a secretive mechanism known as crown consent.

In a point of order after first minister’s questions today, Cole-Hamilton said:

The Guardian has uncovered an internal Scottish government memo, which confirms that it ‘almost certainly’ made changes to legislation at the request of the Queen’s lawyers.

Alterations to exempt crown interests and the royal household from certain aspects of law were even made before legislation was introduced to this parliament. We don’t know what changes were made, or even which bills were changed. I think parliament and the public deserve to see and understand those changes.

Alison Johnstone, the presiding officer, said that was a matter for the first minister. Yesterday Johnstone disclosed she has told ministers they now had to notify MSPs at the earliest stage of a bill’s progress if crown consent has been applied to it. At present, ministers can wait until the end of the parliamentary process before doing so.

Johnstone said MSPs should have “the maximum opportunity” to question ministers about the Queen’s access to the bill, and whether her veto applies.

Updated

Former post office operators who helped to uncover the Horizon IT scandal are to receive £19.5m compensation from the government, my colleague Joanna Partridge reports. The goverment’s news announcement is here, and Joanna’s story is here.

Updated

Government drops clauses from schools bill seen as threatening autonomy of academies

The government has removed large sections of its schools bill following concerns in the House of Lords that the bill would undermine academies’ autonomy, PA Media reports. PA says:

In a letter to the Lords, academies minister Lady Barran said that the government would be removing clauses 1 to 4 and schedule 1 of the bill, which would have introduced new standards that all academies would need to follow, as well as extending the laws for maintained schools to academies.

These aspects of the bill have been sharply criticised in the Lords, with former academies ministers Lord Nash and Lord Agnew, alongside former education secretary Lord Baker, tabling amendments to the bill over their concerns that academies would lose their freedoms under the new “draconian” provisions.

In the letter, Barran said that the government was “grateful for the scrutiny” of the bill in the Lords, adding that the government “recognises the concerns about the possible future use of these powers that are not in line with our intention of preserving academy freedoms”.

The government said it would also support amendments removing clauses 5 to 18 in the bill, which focused on the termination of academy funding agreements, adding that it would develop “revised clauses” through a regulatory and commissioning review to address the Lords’ concerns.

Johnson says inflation crisis offers 'big chance' to respond with economic reform and 'do things better'

Here are the main points from Boris Johnson’s press conference at the end of the Nato summit in Madrid.

  • Boris Johnson said the UK would spend 2.5% of GDP on defence by the end of the decade. The Nato target for defence spending is currently 2% of GDP, and the UK is already above that - although by quite how much depends on whether or not spending on arms for Ukraine is included. The Nato figure, which does not include the Ukrainian spending, has the UK spending 2.12% of GDP on defence in 2022. Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, has reportedly been lobbying the PM to increase this figure to 2.5% by 2028. Larisa Brown, the Times’s defence editor, says the figure announced by Johnson today is higher than the MoD expected.

But, as my colleague Dan Sabbagh, the Guardian’s defence editor, points out, 2030 is eight years ahead and Johnson is unlikely to remain in office long enough to see this through. (See 12.55pm.)

  • Johnson insisted that Ukraine can push back the Russians. He said:

I think that they do have the potential to turn this round. We’ve seen what Ukraine can do to drive the Russians back. We’ve seen what they did around Kyiv, around Kharkiv and now on Snake Island. I think the right thing for us is to is to keep going on the course that Nato has set out no matter, no matter how difficult it is.

He also said when he went to Kyiv recently to meet Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president told him the Ukrainians could turn things around this year.

They do see a way in which they can change the dynamic this year, in the next few months. And I think that’s important and I think it means we have to to help them as much as we can ...

We think that they do indeed have it in their power to repel the Russians and to get them back to the pre-February 24 position. That is certainly what Volodymyr wants to do, and he’s set out a plan for doing that.

  • He said reaffirmed his belief that it was for the Ukrainians to decide what sort of peace would be acceptable to them. The west’s job was simply to “stand up for the principle of the right of the Ukrainians to protect themselves”, he said.
  • He said the cost of freedom was “always worth paying”. He explained:

The point I would make about the cost of freedom is actually it’s always worth paying. Unless we get the right result in Ukraine, Putin will be in a position to commit further acts of aggression against other parts of the former Soviet Union, more or less with impunity, that will drive further global uncertainty, further oil shocks, further panics and more economic distress for the whole world.

  • He said in the long term he expected Ukraine to get protection through “deterrence by denial”. (See 1.03pm.)
  • He said he wanted to explode the “myth” that sanctions were to blame for inflation in the west. He said:

We have to explode the myths of western sanctions are in some way responsible for western price spikes. It is the Russian invasion that has caused the shortages of food.

  • He refused to respond directly to President Putin saying that Johnson with his shirt off would look “disgusting”. (See 12.51pm.)
  • He said there must be a “balance” in the approach to China and that the Ukraine war should serve as a sign that the west should not be complacent. Asked about China, he said:

It’s very important that we remember that we have a huge economic relationship with China ... but at the same time, we’ve got to understand that there are areas where we need to compete, contest and sometimes challenge what China is up to.

There has to be a balanced approach and every country around that table can see that, but obviously one of the reasons why what is happening in Ukraine is so important is because there is a clear read-across to other theatres, and that’s why we’re sticking up to the rules-based international system in the way that we are.

Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, was notably more bullish when she addressed the same topic yesterday (see here and here).

  • He claimed the inflation crisis offered a “big chance” for the government to respond with economic reform and “do things better”. He explained:

We’ve got to deal with a lot of the underlying causes of cost pressures, for people, for businesses, for the whole country ... You’ve also got to try to look at the root causes. And I think there are things going on in the UK economy, whether it’s in the housing market or the energy market, our transport systems, which are driving unnecessary cost pressures for people in our country. Those are the things that we need to fix.

I in no way minimise the importance of this. But this is a big chance for us now to do things differently and do things better and create foundations for a much stronger economy.

Boris Johnson holding his press conference.
Boris Johnson holding his press conference. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Updated

Johnson is now taking a question from a Ukrainian journalist who starts by thanking the PM for his support for his country.

Q: Could Ukraine join Nato?

Johnson says he went to Ukraine before these summits started because he wanted to get a feel for how President Zelenskiy saw things as going.

He says he came away with the view they believe they can turn things around this year.

The west needs to ensure that the Ukrainian troops can get the maximum value out of the equipment they have. He goes on:

We think they do indeed have it in their power to repel the Russians and get them back to the pre-February 24 position.

Johnson says, at that point, regardless of whether Ukraine has an article 5 guarantee, it should get “deterrence by denial”. That means giving Ukraine so much equipment that no further attack is foreseeable.

(The phrase “deterrence by denial” refers to an established military doctrine.)

There can then by a further discussion about Nato membership down the track, he says.

And that is it. The press conference is over.

I’ll post a summary shortly.

Updated

These are from my colleague Dan Sabbagh, the Guardian’s defence editor, on the PM’s declaration that defence spending will rise to 2.5% of GDP by the end of the decade. (See 12.48pm.)

Q: Should the UK reconsider its economic relationship with China, as Liz Truss suggests?

Johnson says the UK has an economic relationship with China. But it has to consider if there are limits. It did this with Huawei.

China is a gigantic economy, and will be a big factor in world affairs for years to come.

Johnson declines to respond to Putin saying he would look 'disgusting' with his shirt off

Q: Putin has hit back at you after you joked about his bare-chested photo appearances? And is it wise to pick a war of words with someone your ministers call a lunatic.

That is a reference to this.

Johnson ignores the substance of the question and says Putin should reflect on what he is doing.

UPDATE: PA Media says:

Johnson was among the western leaders to mock the Russian leader at the G7 summit, joking that leaders could take their clothes off to “show that we’re tougher than Putin”.

Canadian premier Justin Trudeau had also joked that western leaders could try to match Putin’s naked torso pictures with a “bare-chested horseback riding display,” one of the Russian leader’s widely publicised athletic adventures.

Speaking to reporters in Turkmenistan, Putin retorted that, unlike him, western leaders abuse alcohol and do not do sports.

“I don’t know how they wanted to get undressed, above or below the waist,” he said. “But I think it would be a disgusting sight in any case.”

He noted that to look good “it’s necessary to stop abusing alcohol and other bad habits, do physical exercise and take part in sports”.

Updated

Johnson says defence spending set to rise to 2.5% of GDP by end of decade

Q: Why are you cutting 9,500 troops and breaking the manifesto pledge to increase defence spending by 0.5% above inflation?

Johnson says Nato the amounts the UK is spending on defence. Defence spending has gone up by £24bn.

The UK is well over the 2% (of GDP) defence spending target, he says. It will get to 2.5% by the end of the decade.

Johnson says inflation is a particular problem for two reasons.

Unemployment is very low, which means the labour market is tight.

And the energy market generates cost problems too, he says.

He says the government needs to fix these things.

He says he is not minimising the problem. But the government has the chance “to create foundations for a much stronger economy”.

'Cost of freedom is always worth paying', says Johnson

Johnson says “the cost of freedom is always worth paying”.

If Russia succeeds, there will be further attacks.

The lesson of the 20th century is that you only have a period of sustaind prosperity when borders are uphold.

Updated

Q: Do your allies have the stamina support Ukraine?

Johnson says at Nato there is strong support for continuing to support Ukraine.

But he says it is important to persuade other countries around the world of the need for Russia not to win.

Ukrainians 'do have potential to turn this round', Johnson says

Johnson is now taking questions.

The first two are from the BBC’s Chris Mason.

Q: What are your objectives with Ukraine?

Johnson says it is up to Ukrainians to decide what they want.

He says after the shopping centre attack a poll suggested 89% of Ukrainians were opposed to a land for peace deal.

The aim is to put President Zelenskiy in the best possible position if there were anything to talk about.

But at the moment there is nothing to talk about.

Johnson says he believes the Ukrainians “do have the potential to turn this round”.

Q: Are you looking forward to getting home, given the problems you have domestically?

Yes, says Johnson. “There is no place like home.”

Updated

Johnson says the Nato alliance is “in robust health”.

If history is any guide, this great alliance will again be successful, he says.

Johnson says it's myth to claim west does not have 'staying power' to continue supporting Ukraine

Johnson says world leaders need to explode some myths.

One myth is that it is sanctions that are responsible for the price hikes. It was the Russian invasion that caused the problem, and the blockade of grain exports.

Another myth is the idea that Nato triggered the crisis.

Nato is a defensive organisation. He says Sweden and Finland are joining because it is defensive, and not the aggressor in this case.

And he says the final myth that must be debunked is the idea what western democracies “do not have the same staying power”.

If Russia won, the consequences around the world would be dire.

Updated

Boris Johnson's press conference

Boris Johnson is now holding a press conference in Madrid, at the end of the Nato summit.

He says the governments of the Commonwealth, the G7 and Nato are determined to work together to ease the cost of living crisis. That means things like working together to get grain out of Ukraine, and cut energy costs.

Updated

No 10 refuses to endorse Tory claims privileges committee inquiry into PM could be 'kangaroo court'

Downing Street has refused to endorse Tory claims that the privileges committee investigating claims Boris Johnson lied to parliament about Partygate will function as a “kangaroo court”. (See 9.35am.)

Asked if Boris Johnson saw the committee like that, a No 10 spokesperson said Johnson would not use that language. The spokesperson also endorsed what Liz Truss said this morning about trusting the committee to conduct the investigation fairly. He said:

I think the foreign secretary was asked about this this morning and she was clear that we trust the committee to take its responsibilities seriously.

Asked if Johnson had any concerns about the committee appointing Harriet Harman, the former Labour deputy leader, as its chair, the spokesperson said that was “entirely a matter for the committee”.

Some Tories, including the Cabinet Office minister Michael Ellis, have questioned whether Harman can be an impartial chair because of past comments on Twitter about the case.

Three tweets were highlighted in a report by the Daily Telegraph last month. The most awkward was one posted in April where she reposted a tweet from Alastair Campbell, the former Tony Blair communications chief, saying: “They broke their own emergency laws. They lied.” Harman appeared to endorse this with a comment saying these were “laws to save lives that they broke”.

In a second tweet Harman posted polling figures on the proportion of people who think Johnson lied about Partygate, and queried why more people thought he lied about Partygate than thought he should resign over Partygate. Arguably this just shows Harman’s adherence to the ministerial code, which says ministers who lie to parliament should resign.

And in a third tweet, posted in response to the news that Johnson and Rishi Sunak were fined over Partygate, Harman said this amounted to an admission they misled parliament. But it is accepted that Johnson did mislead MPs when he said the rules were followed at all times. What the privileges committee has to establish is whether Johnson misled MPs intentionally.

Updated

Bill of rights bill could be 'seriously damaging to protection of human rights across Europe', MPs and peers say

The government’s bill of rights bill, which would repeal the Human Rights Act (HRA) and replace it with similar human rights legislation giving British judges more scope to diverge from European court of human rights rulings, could weaken human rights across Europe, MPs and peers claim.

The joint committee on human rights, which includes members from the Commons and the Lords, made the point in a long letter to Dominic Raab, the justice secretary, raising numerous concerns with the bill.

The bill was only published last week. But most of the proposals it contained featured in a government consultation document published at the end of 2021, and they were reviewed in detail by the committee in a report published earlier this year.

In her letter, Joanna Cherry (SNP), the acting chair, said the main concern of the committee was that the bill would “weaken the protection of human rights in the UK”. She went on:

The serious implications of the government’s proposals on the international plane were recently highlighted to the committee during a visit to the institutions of the Council of Europe, including the ECHR [European court of human rights], in Strasbourg. It was emphasised to us that the HRA is viewed internationally as a gold standard and a model example of how human rights can be effectively embedded into domestic law and practice. Any weakening of the mechanisms in the HRA could damage the UK’s reputation internationally and weaken the government’s position when seeking to ensure other states uphold their human rights obligations.

Moreover, we were left in no doubt that the UK’s status as a leading member of the Council of Europe and one of the founders of the ECHR [European convention on human rights] means that any reforms to the HRA that suggest we are wavering in our commitment to the convention’s protections could be a green light for other, less committed nations to weaken their own human rights protections. This would be seriously damaging to the protection of human rights across Europe at a time when Russia has already shown contempt for the principles of the Council of Europe by invading Ukraine, resulting in its expulsion from the organisation. The committee urge the government to think carefully before proceeding with a Bill that could have such undesirable international ramifications.

Updated

SNP politicians have cited today’s new polling on Scottish independence (see 11.20am) as evidence that a referendum would be very winnable.

This is from Humza Yousaf, the health and social care secretary in the Scottish government.

And this is from Keith Brown, the SNP’s depute (Scots for deputy) leader.

This poll clearly shows why the Westminster parties are running scared of a referendum - the independence campaign is getting into gear and building momentum and they clearly have no positive case to make for continued Westminster rule.

With the highest favourability rating of any political leader in Scotland, the public continue to put their trust in Nicola Sturgeon to deliver on their priorities and build a better nation for all.

And these are from Stephen Kerr, the Scottish Conservative MSP, effectively arguing the opposite.

Updated

53% of Scots do not favour holding independence referendum next year, poll suggests

New polling has found that a majority of Scots (53%) do not think there should be an independence referendum in October next year, with just 40% backing the idea.

The polling for the Scotsman was carried out by Savanta ComRes between 23 and 28 June – Sturgeon announced the proposed referendum date of 19 October 2023 on 28 June.

It also found that 41% opposed holding a referendum without the relevant powers being granted by the UK government through a section 30 order, with 37% in favour – which is the route proposed by Sturgeon on Tuesday when she announced that the supreme court has been asked to rule on the legality of such a vote.

The polling suggests that Sturgeon and the SNP will face a significant challenge in the coming months not only in persuading voters to accept their timetable, but also in shifting support for the question being asked: should Scotland be an independent country?

The Scotsman polling put support for no at 51% and yes at 49%, once undecideds are removed.

Meanwhile, a YouGov survey for the pro-union group Scotland in Union this morning found around one-third of people in Scotland support the plan for a second referendum next year, and only one-fifth chose a referendum as one of the most important issues that the Scottish government should prioritise over the next two years.

Updated

And in another interview Liz Truss refused to endorse Boris Johnson’s claim that “toxic masculinity” helped to explain Vladimir Putin’s conduct and that he would not have invaded Ukraine if he were a woman. Asked if she agreed, she told Times Radio:

[Putin is] clearly is capable of very, very evil acts ... I don’t pretend that I can conduct a psychological analysis on him, nor do I think it’s helpful ...

I think that both women and men are capable of terrible and appalling acts.

In her interviews this morning Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, also restated her belief that Russia should be forced out from all of Ukraine, including Crimea, which it has occupied since 2014. She told the Today programme:

All of Ukraine that has been invaded by Russia is illegally occupied. And, ultimately, the Russians need to be pushed out of all of that territory, and certainly what we shouldn’t be doing as friends and allies [of Ukraine] ... is implying that there are any trade-offs or any bits of Ukrainian territory that could be traded away or compromised on.

Asked whether Russia could be pushed out of all of Ukraine within a foreseeable timeframe, she replied:

It is realistic, and that is why we are supplying the extra lethal aid we’re supplying.

Truss has consistently said that Russia should be forced to leave the whole of Ukraine, including Crimea. But there have been concerns that this sets an unrealistically high bar for victory, because the Ukrainians might be willing to agree a peace settlement that does not involve Russian withdrawal from Crimea.

Truss says west needs to ensure Taiwan has ability to defend itself against China

Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, has said western countries should provide more support to Taiwan so that it can defend itself against a possible attack by China.

In interviews this morning, she said the west must “learn the lessons from Ukraine” and ensure sovereign nations “have the capabilities that they need”.

She told Times Radio:

The fact is Ukraine wasn’t in a good enough position to defend itself, that made it a target for Russia. That’s what we, as a free world, need to do is make sure that Taiwan has the ability to defend itself, that we continue to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait.

These are things that we’re discussing with our allies and working on with our allies.

Asked if this meant providing arms, Truss said:

There are different ways of doing that, and Finland and Sweden have joined Nato as a way of making sure that they are defended. Ultimately, it is making sure that those countries have the capabilities that they need.

Boris Johnson at the Nato summit in Madrid this morning.
Boris Johnson at the Nato summit in Madrid this morning. Photograph: WPA/Getty Images

We are now told that Boris Johnson’s press conference at the end of the Nato summit in Madrid is not likely to start until 1.45pm UK time.

UK household incomes suffer longest run of declines on record

Figures out today show that UK household incomes have now fallen on average in real terms for the fourth quarter in a row. Incomes have gone up, but inflation has risen even more, which is why in real terms they have been cut.

This is the longest sustained fall in household disposable income since the 1950s, when this sort of data first became available, Bloomberg says.

My colleague Graeme Wearden has more details on his business live blog.

Johnson claims there is growing global support for cutting food tariffs

Boris Johnson has floated the prospect of food tariffs being reduced to help people with the cost of living.

Speaking to reporters accompanying him on his trip to the Nato summit, he said there was a “new impetus” around the world to cut food tariffs.

Asked if the cost-of-living crisis is going to get worse before it gets better, Johnson said:

I wouldn’t want to put it in exactly that way. But what I would say is that it is going to continue to be an issue for a while. But I do think that we will find solutions.

He went on to say cutting tariffs had been discussed at the G7 summit.

Look at the things we’re doing already to get food supplies going. Very interestingly at the G7, there’s a new impetus to cut food tariffs - [there is] $750bn [$617bn] worth of food tariffs around the world.

Biden is now going to cut $178bn dollars [£146bn] worth. That would be a good thing - including on pet food, by the way. We’ve got food tariffs we don’t need.

Asked for examples, Johnson said: “Do we in the UK need to have tariffs on oranges? We don’t grow many bananas in the UK, I don’t think.”

This is not the first time Johnson has publicly floated the case for cutting food tariffs. In his recent speech on housing, he said he could not see the case for the UK having tariffs on olive oil imports, for example, because there is no domestic olive oil industry that needs protecting.

Boris Johnson insisted the idea of an early election “hasn’t occurred to me” but refused to rule out calling a snap poll, PA Media reports.

Speaking to reporters accompanying him on his trip to the Nato summit, Johnson said he would not “start talking about politics” at a time when he was dealing with cost-of-living pressures and the war in Ukraine. PA says he repeatedly failed to rule out the prospect of going to the country before the next scheduled election in 2024.

Referring to his former career as a journalist, Johnson told the reporters:

Do you know what, I’ve realised where I’ve been going wrong with all this.

I’ve got to recognise that years and years ago, I used to do the kind of jobs that you all do now, and it was a great, great life and a great privilege.

What you are able to do is offer opinion, commentary, analysis, predictions about politics, about individuals and so on.

I think I’ve got to recognise I’m no longer a member of that sacred guild.

It would be a demarcation dispute for me to cross over and start talking about politics.

I’ve got to talk about my programme for government, about policy, and what I’m doing to take the country forward.

Asked whether he was ruling out an early election he said:

I’m just saying, I don’t comment on those sorts of things. The idea hadn’t occurred to me, if you really want the truth, because I’m focused on getting through the cost-of-living pressures, developing and improving, widening, our plan for a stronger economy, and making sure that we continue to offer leadership on some of the tough global issues the world faces.

Asked if he was leaning towards a snap election he said:

I am not offering commentary, what I’m trying to get over to you is that I’m here to comment on policy, on the agenda of government.

(The journalists weren’t asking him for commentary. They were just asking him a straightforward question.)

Boris Johnson with Joe Biden (right) at the Nato summit in Madrid this morning.
Boris Johnson with Joe Biden (right) at the Nato summit in Madrid this morning. Photograph: JJ Guillen/EPA

Chris Bryant, the Labour MP who chairs the Commons standards committee, and who was chair of the privileges committee too until he resigned because he felt his public comments about Boris Johnson would cast doubt on his ability to chair a fair inquiry into the PM, has rubbished the claims highlighted by the Daily Telegraph. (See 9.35am.)

And Gavin Barwell, the Tory peer who was chief of staff to Theresa May when she was PM, says that if Johnson does not like the format of the privileges committee inquiry, other types of inquiry are available.

Liz Truss rejects claims from Tories that privileges committee inquiry into Johnson won’t be fair

Good morning. Boris Johnson will be holding a press conference later at the end of the Nato conference and although he has been preoccupied in recent days with a war in Europe and the threat posed by Russia to UK security – this morning he has announced £1bn in extra military aid for Ukraine – there is no escaping Partygate. Yesterday the Commons privileges committee held its first meeting to plan its inquiry into claims that Johnson lied to MPs and – in what could be a highly significant move – it decided to effectively invite No 10 staff to give evidence anonymously.

If, as reports suggest, some junior Downing Street officials are aggrieved about the way they were treated during Partygate, and if they can provide evidence that Johnson knew much more about parties taking place or rules being broken than he told the Commons, then this whistleblower provision could prove fatal to the prime minister.

The prospect has certainly alarmed Johnson’s allies. In their splash for the Daily Telegraph, Christopher Hope and Tony Diver say Johnson’s allies fear he is being stitched up and that the committee will a “kangaroo court”. They report:

Allies of the prime minister accused the House of Commons’ privileges committee of relying on “hearsay evidence”, after MPs ruled that witnesses will be granted anonymity ...

By questioning the integrity of the investigation, it is likely that Downing Street is preparing to challenge any negative findings made by the committee. It also raises the prospect that the prime minister would refuse to resign if he is found to have misled parliament ...

Even though a report by Sue Gray, the senior civil servant, on Downing Street parties kept identities of witnesses secret, one No 10 source said it would be difficult for Mr Johnson to challenge anonymous evidence which effectively could be hearsay.

The insider said: “How can a ‘defendant’ question/cross-examine anonymous evidence?”

An MP friend of Mr Johnson added: “It is bonkers. Going on hearsay evidence of it is not in the spirit of it. How can you interrogate someone who has not turned up? If you don’t trust the process, how can you trust the result? It is a disservice to the House of Commons.”

The Telegraph’s sources do not seem to understand the difference between hearsay evidence and anonymised evidence. Hearsay evidence is second hand evidence (“I did not hear the PM say ‘How was the party in the press office last night?’ at the meeting hours before telling MPs there were no parties, but I’ve heard from a friend he did say that.”) Anonymised evidence is just normal evidence, but where the identity of the person providing it is not widely disclosed. Yesterday the committee said it would accept anonymised evidence, but only subject “to the chair [Harriet Harman] being able to identify the individual’s identity in conjunction with committee staff, as well as the relevance and probity of their evidence”.

Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, was giving interviews this morning and on the Today programme she was asked if she backed the Telegraph’s campaign for justice for the Downing Street One. She knocked the question away, and would not endorse the “kangaroo court” objections published by the paper. Asked if she was satisfied the committee would give Johnson a fair hearing, she replied:

I trust the privileges committee to look at the evidence properly and make the make the judgement appropriately and we need to allow that process to continue.

Asked again if Johnson would get a fair hearing, she replied:

I trust implicitly my parliamentary colleagues to listen properly to the evidence and make the right decision.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.20am: Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, speaks at a British Chambers of Commerce conference.

10.50am: Maroš Šefčovič, the EU’s Brexit negotiator and European Commissioner vice president, speaks at the EU/UK forum conference.

11.45am (UK time): Boris Johnson is due to hold a press conference at the end of the Nato summit.

12pm: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, takes questions in the Scottish parliament.

4.15pm: Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, speaks at the end of a day-long conference on the future of Britain organised by his thinktank.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com

Updated

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