Jurgen Klopp probably assumed the injury crisis with which he had to deal in 2020/21 would be the worst of his career, but he’s in danger of matching it this season. The players who are currently unavailable come close to making a very competitive-looking Liverpool side.
Some of the missing men should return relatively soon, and the depleted Reds were still able to turn in a good performance in their 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, even if they couldn’t get the three points. However, the last thing Klopp needed was for a key player to make himself unnecessarily unavailable, which is exactly what Darwin Nunez accomplished with his red card against the Eagles.
The Uruguayan’s stupidity means he will now miss the matches with Manchester United, Bournemouth and Newcastle. A full-strength Liverpool would be confident of winning all three fixtures, particularly as the latter two are at Anfield. Their lack of forward options could prove costly though.
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Klopp said after the Crystal Palace match that Roberto Firmino might be back for the trip to Old Trafford, which would be an enormous help. As the Reds now have a full week to prepare for their next match, they have an opportunity to explore other possibilities for the centre-forward spot and can train the team accordingly.
After his goal on Monday night, Luis Diaz could theoretically be an option. He has played the position in the past, albeit not since 2019. When scouting the Colombian, Pep Lijnders identified that he could “attack through the centre... This will give him more striker movements as well, with this more goals,” as he wrote in his book, ‘Intensity: Inside Liverpool FC - Our Identity’.
Mohamed Salah is the more obvious candidate, even if moving him to a central position could come at a cost. He is playing very well where he is, having picked up a goal and (effectively) an assist at Fulham, before creating eight chances on Monday night. Per Understat, that’s the most opportunities he’s set up in a league game in the last nine seasons, so most likely his entire career.
The advantage of moving Salah centrally is that there is a better candidate to take his usual role than there would be for Diaz. Most of the goals and assists Harvey Elliott has amassed in his brief career occurred when playing as a right forward in a 4-3-3 formation for Blackburn Rovers in the Championship in 2020/21. He has occasionally appeared on the left, as has Fabio Carvalho, but putting Elliott on the right makes more sense.
This would also enable Liverpool to keep the triangle of Salah, Elliott and Trent Alexander-Arnold in relatively close proximity, even with the positional shifts. The trio have already shown this season how well they work together; Salah created three chances for both Harvey and Trent against Palace, after Elliott had played in the Egyptian allowing him to set up Nunez’ goal at Craven Cottage.
There’s another very important reason why playing Salah centrally makes the most sense: he’s really good at it. In terms of being lethal in front of goal, the Reds’ number 11 is more effective there than in his established position.
The data shows that while he is understandably less involved in the build-up play when through the middle, he creates the same number of chances and they are of slightly higher quality too. More notably, Salah’s non-penalty expected goals per shot rate rises from 0.14 on the right to 0.20 centrally, with his shot conversion rates 14 per cent and 24 percent respectively in those positions.
While the sample in the Premier League is a relatively small 22 matches, his consistency of performance when central is very impressive. With an eye on the forthcoming match with United, it’s worth noting the form has been better on the road too.
Salah has played seven league games as a centre-forward away from Anfield. He scored every time, bagged a hat-trick at Bournemouth in 2018 and amassed 11 goals in total. Whether he will be capable of such heights when flanked by Diaz and Elliott as opposed to aided by Firmino or Sadio Mane remains to be seen. Salah’s record demands that Klopp considers the possibility of playing him centrally though.
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