The two Glasgow giants inevitably dominate Scottish football. It’s approaching 40 years since a side other than Celtic or Rangers won the title and that run shows no sign of ending. As such, it’s the battle to be the best of the rest which most interests the other 10 clubs in the Premiership.
Aberdeen currently sit in third place, and are favoured to finish there at the conclusion of the season (per FiveThirtyEight). Their position would have been stronger had they beaten Rangers on Tuesday evening, but despite leading in the 94th minute they somehow conspired to lose.
Nonetheless, the Dons have made a decent start to 2022/23, particularly as they finished 10th last season. One of their more impressive players has been Liverpool loanee Leighton Clarkson, with the team having a better goal difference when he has played as opposed to when he has not (per FBRef).
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The 21-year-old, who was on loan at Blackburn Rovers for the first half last term, is Aberdeen’s third top scorer in the league. This is pretty remarkable considering he is a central midfielder, though perhaps it’s more telling regarding the goal threat of his temporary teammates, as Clarkson has only scored four times.
He bagged his latest in the loss to Rangers and it was a beautiful long-range strike. Three of his four goals have been hit from outside the box in 2022/23, making him the joint-top scorer from further than 18 yards in the Scottish Premiership.
It’s also only one fewer than the entire Liverpool squad have scored in the Premier League this season. It’s an area in which they undoubtedly need to do better. Of his three from beyond the edge of the penalty area, Clarkson’s effort against Rangers was the closest (as it was hit from the edge of the ‘D’). He was further back for his strike in his debut against St. Mirren and he struck a direct free-kick at St. Johnstone which proved to be the only goal of that game.
Clarkson can also pop up in the six-yard box, as he proved when scoring in a 4-1 victory over Hibernian. It’s the power, pace and placement of his long-range efforts which have inevitably captured more attention though, and the stats bear out the impressive nature of his finishing.
Per Fotmob, the youngster has transformed chances collectively valued at 0.9 expected goals into 1.9 xG of efforts in the post-shot model. He’s still overperforming to a likely unsustainable level but it helps to explain why he has been so productive from outside the box.
Clarkson – who has created a chance for Mohamed Salah in the Champions League – has also demonstrated he can set up opportunities for others, with his one Premiership assist coming from a corner. Pep Lijnders was once so impressed with a through ball the midfielder played in training, he wrote about it on the club website, and data from Henshaw Analysis Visuals shows that his passing is way above average for top flight football in Scotland.
For instance, Clarkson has been in the top 10 per cent of his positional peers for passes to the penalty area, chances created, and expected assists per 100 passes. He’s also top of the pile for defensive duels, which perhaps explains why the central zone at the front of the Aberdeen half is one of only two outside their box which the Dons control (per The Analyst), as he will often be found there.
We must be realistic about the level of football Clarkson is currently experiencing. Aberdeen may well be the third best team in Scotland but FiveThirtyEight rates them as weaker than 15 clubs from the English Championship, never mind the Premier League. But all he can do is perform when given the opportunity, and at present he’s certainly doing that. It’s up to Jurgen Klopp to decide if the young midfielder will be worthy of a spot in his Liverpool squad for 2023/24.
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