Jude Bellingham's third season at Borussia Dortmund is seeing his game taken to new levels - but it is set to be his last campaign in Germany.
The 19-year-old England international's performances for the Black and Yellows in the Bundesliga and the Champions League have only served to burnish his reputation as one of European football's next great midfielders. With that heightened reputation has arrived an increased price tag.
For some time now Bellingham has been in the sights of Liverpool, the Reds keen to add a player that carries all the hallmarks of what they want and need to move transition into a new era. They had been seen as front runners for a long time, and having lost out to Real Madrid in the race for Aurelien Tchouameni last summer would have been hopeful of being at the front of the queue.
READ MORE: Liverpool have just 'missed out' on chance to solve midfield crisis for free
But a tough start to the season, the jeopardy that brings when it comes to potentially missing out on the Champions League, and the reported desire of Real Madrid, Chelsea and Manchester City to show their hand next summer means that it is a deal that looks uncertain.
A report in The Times claims that another stumbling block will be the price tag, with a value of £100m or more something that would put off the Reds, it is claimed. While there may be truth in that statement there is the undeniable fact that the transfer market has changed and in order to compete there has to be an acknowledgement of that. The question is not whether Liverpool can afford to sign Bellingham, they can, it is about whether they are willing to sanction such a deal and how it could affect their ability to negotiate in the future.
Pep Guardiola's praise of Bellingham when Borussia Dortmund met Manchester City in the Champions League last month has only served to heighten the speculation that City may join the race to acquire the England international, who is expected to depart Dortmund next summer with a line of potential suitors likely to be in waiting.
Liverpool's midfield problems have been a key issue, something that wasn't addressed in the summer window to the extent that supporters would have liked to have seen. It has been suggested that next summer will be when Liverpool will make a play to address their midfield problem, but it is a window that is likely to see owners Fenway Sports Group have to stray somewhat from their desired low net spend, with significant outlay required and little in the way of major saleable assets that could be moved on to bear the brunt of the cost.
So, how much might it cost to bring Bellingham to Anfield?
Player values usually fall in line with the length of the contract. Last summer Bellingham was deemed to be worth around £75m with three years remaining, but given how he has taken his game to another level and is still only a teenager has seen his market value, according to analysts at the Swiss-based CIES Football Observatory, pegged at as high as €180m (£157m).
CIES methodology takes into account a number of factors; age, contract, performance, international status, career progression, sporting level, economic level and inflation. All these create a transfer market value that CIES use to rank the top players in European football.
Bellingham is valued at around the same level, according to CIES, as the likes of Haaland, Phil Foden and Kylian Mbappe, and if Liverpool wanted to acquire him next summer it would be an expensive exercise.
His route so far has been developmental, his next move will likely see him get parity with the biggest earners, meaning wages of £200,000 a week won't be too much of a stretch.
Transfer fees appear in the financial statements of clubs as amortised costs, the guaranteed fees minus any add-ons spread over the life of the players' contract. However the payment of the fee is structured, the amortisation will be how the fee appears for accounting purposes.
Using a conservative estimate of CIES's valuation of Bellingham, £130m, based over a six-year deal, as was the signing of Darwin Nunez, and the amortisation would appear as £21.7m per year. Add wages at an example of £200,000 per week and that would be £10.4m per year, an annual accounting cost of £35.7m per year. With potentially higher wages, add-ons and agents fees it could creep up significantly higher.
There is, however, room to manoeuvre for a big move should FSG sanction it. Over the last five years Liverpool's amortisation costs have risen from £68m to £108m, a rise of 86.2 per cent. That is the largest increase among the whole big six, but their annual amortisation has been considerably lower than Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal.
Chelsea's annual amortisation grew from £88m to £162m (84 per cent), Spurs' £43m to £74m (72.1 per cent), Arsenal's £77m to £117m (52 per cent) and Manchester City's from £122m to £146m (19.7 per cent). Manchester United saw a decrease in their annual amortisation over the five years, dropping from £124m to £120m, a drop of 3.2 per cent.
With no concerns over the potential Financial Fair Play breaches, something that Manchester City would have to be mindful of having remained on UEFA's radar, Liverpool will be able to have more flexibility for negotiation, especially given that they are forecast to post record revenues in excess of £600m for the 2021/22 financial year, according to forecasts by analysts at sports business website Off The Pitch.
There is undoubtedly the ability for Liverpool to spend next summer on Bellingham and still have room to add to other areas as well. Whether that happens remains to be seen.
READ NEXT
