While Jurgen Klopp continues to publicly play down Liverpool’s chances of qualifying for next season’s Champions League, you wonder how he feels behind the scenes.
The Reds were given fresh hope on Sunday, following their 1-0 win over Brentford the day before, as Newcastle United lost 2-0 at home to Arsenal before Manchester United lost 1-0 away at West Ham United.
Both defeats mean Liverpool remain only a point off the top four, with the Red Devils a point above them in fourth and the Magpies two points clear in third. However, both sides do have games in hand on Klopp’s side, while seventh-placed Brighton & Hove Albion, who currently sit seven points behind the Reds, have the potential to leapfrog them into fifth courtesy of three games in hand.
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As a result, Liverpool’s fate is ultimately not in their own hands. They could win their three remaining matches and still end up dropping a position and finishing the season in sixth. But their eight-game unbeaten run and six-match winning streak has at least given them a fighting chance as we enter the Premier League’s final straight.
If Newcastle or Manchester United drop further points, they are in a position to take advantage. At the very least, if Brighton drop points, they are well-placed to secure fifth and Europa League qualification.
"I've said it before, other teams are in much better positions,” Klopp said before facing Brentford when asked about Liverpool’s outside top four hopes. “As long as they win football games, we have no chance.
"We have to keep teams behind us, which not all of them we can do on our own. If Brighton wins all their games until the end of the season, and with how they played last night (when beating Manchester United), that's possible. Again, incredible performance to be honest. Really, really good football game.
"That didn't change. We have 59? United has 63. We can get 71, maximum. For that, United needs eight points from five (games), from 15 (points). I think they will do that to be honest. They win three games from the rest and that's it for us.”
Make that United need eight points from four games and 12 points, after losing to West Ham United. Except they don’t. While eight points would indeed get them to 71 points, if they finished level on points with Liverpool then the Reds would actually finish above them.
And having thrashed the Red Devils’ 7-0 at Anfield back in March, that win could be about to prove decisive.
Should two sides finish level on points in the Premier League, league position is decided by goal difference. If still the same, it then comes down to goals scored.
If the clubs still cannot be separated, the team with the fewest points in head-to-head matches. And if the record is still the same, the club scoring the higher number of goals as the away team in head-to-head matches would finish higher.
Liverpool currently better United across the board on such counts. Their goal difference stands at +25 compared to +8, while they have scored 67 goals compared to the Red Devils’ 49. And while both clubs claimed home victories over the other this season, the Reds’ away goal in their 2-1 loss at Old Trafford again gives them the advantage.
As a result, that memorable 7-0 win at Anfield has given Liverpool a 14-goal turnaround on their bitter rivals to hand them a significantly healthier return in the process, and give them the edge in such circumstances if the two sides did finish level on points. Meanwhile, if United are to slip up further and Klopp’s side are to take advantage, that goal-difference gap will only get wider too.
So, Erik ten Hag need nine points from their final four games of the season to guarantee they finish above Liverpool. Klopp thinks they’ll do it, but what does their run-in look like?
United are back in action next Saturday as they host Wolves, before travelling to AFC Bournemouth the following weekend. They then finish the campaign with back-to-back home games against Chelsea and Fulham.
In truth, such a run-in is favourable. Wolves and Bournemouth are on the verge of safety and are unlikely to get dragged back into the Premier League relegation battle at this stage. Meanwhile, Chelsea have nothing to play for in mid-table, while Fulham’s slim European hopes have virtually been ended, and will be extinguished before the final day of the season.
United’s away form is poor, of course, with such issues pre-dating these back-to-back losses with Brighton and West Ham that have brought Liverpool back into top four contention.
They would throw away a 2-0 lead away at Tottenham Hotspur in their previous away outing as they were held to a 2-2 draw, having crashed out of the Europa League the week before after losing 3-0 away at Sevilla. Meanwhile, while they would win 2-0 away at Nottingham Forest on April 16, and 1-0 away at Real Betis on March 16, a 2-0 loss away at Newcastle and that 7-0 thrashing at Anfield sit either side of that Europa League trip to Spain.
In mid-February, they were held to a 2-2 draw at Camp Nou after conceding a second half lead against Barcelona late on. And while they had won 2-0 away at Leeds United the previous weekend, as well as 3-0 away at Nottingham Forest in the League Cup in late-January, they conceded a last-minute winner away at Arsenal and last-minute equaliser away at Crystal Palace the week before taking on the Tricky Trees.
As a result, in 2023 their away record stands at played 13, won four, drawn three, lost six. Meanwhile, before the World Cup, while their away record made for better reading, they still lost 4-0 away at Brighton, 6-3 away at Man City and 3-1 away at Aston Villa.
Yet even if AFC Bournemouth are able to ensure such misery continues at the Vitality Stadium, having infamously defeated Liverpool at home just days after the Reds’ 7-0 thrashing of United, they’ll still be confident of victory in their three victories at Old Trafford to claim the nine points they need.
So what about Newcastle? Their run-in is tougher than United’s though they are still a side in-form despite their loss to Arsenal, having won eight of their last ten matches.
They need seven points from four matches to guarantee they finish above Liverpool, though boast a superior goal-difference (+32 to +25) if the two sides were to finish level on points. Yet the Reds have scored more (67 goals) than the Magpies’ 61 goals.
As a result, if Newcastle slip-ups are to be forthcoming and Klopp’s men keep winning, such a difference could quickly be eradicated and Liverpool the advantage. Meanwhile, the Reds clinched a league-double over the Magpies, ensuring they would finish ahead on head-to-head if level on points and goal difference.
Newcastle are next in action away at relegation-threatened Leeds United next Saturday as Sam Allardyce looks to steer them to safety with only goal difference keeping them out of the relegation zone as things stand. How the former Magpies manager, sacked after just half a season in January 2008, would love to deal a blow to his old side’s Champions League hopes, while also pushing Everton, another brief ex, closer to the Championship.
Eddie Howe’s side then host European-chasing Brighton, who are still in Champions League contention themselves if sides drop points, and relegation-threatened Leicester City, before finishing the season away at Chelsea. As a result, with stakes so high at both ends of the table, the points they need are hardly guaranteed.
Of course, if Brighton were to do Liverpool a favour and win at St. James’ Park, there remains the possibility that they leapfrog the Reds and actually steal that possible top four finish for themselves. Yet they also still have clashes with title-chasing Arsenal and Man City to contend with, along with matches with relegation-threatened Everton and Southampton, and European-chasing Aston Villa.
For the record, it is still possible that Roberto De Zerbi's side finish level on points, goal difference, and goals scored with Liverpool. Currently seven points behind the Reds with three games in hand, two wins and a draw will take them level. Meanwhile, their goal difference stands at +22 compared to +25, while they have scored 62 goals compared to 67.
A 2-0 win, a 2-1 win, and a 1-1 draw from those three outstanding games will leave both clubs level across the board. Yet, having picked up four points against Liverpool this season, Brighton’s superior head-to-head record ensures they would finish above the Reds in such circumstances.
As a result, as Klopp warned last week, a top four finish for Liverpool is still unlikely. “Other teams are in much better positions,” after all.
If Manchester United, Newcastle United, and Brighton & Hove Albion keep winning, then the Reds “have no chance”. For now, all they have is hope, waiting for slip-ups that might not come as they observe from afar.
‘So you’re telling me there’s a chance’ as the Jim Carrey ‘Dumb and Dumber’ meme goes. Liverpool legend Jamie Carragher would even tweet such a GIF following Newcastle and Manchester United’s defeats on Sunday.
Yes, there is a chance. Just as Kopites were coming to terms with a season in the Europa League, the door to the top four has been left ajar. Still out of Reds hands, Liverpool need to keep winning and cross their fingers for further slip-ups from their rivals.
But, as the old saying goes, it’s the hope that kills you.
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