Football is an incredibly random sport.
The low scoring nature increases the likelihood of unusual results, thanks to factors such as the referee and VAR, Storm Eunice and similar weather phenomena affecting play or the random bounce of the ball.
Indeed, it has been estimated in ‘The Numbers Game’ that a result is 50 percent skill and 50 percent luck.
That’s a huge chunk of random variation baked into match outcomes.
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But there is one aspect of play in which some research and preparation can reduce the influence of chance, and Liverpool are taking it to exciting new levels.
While there are so many things which influence open play, in set piece situations it’s possible to devise specific strategies in order to outfox the opposition.
The Reds have employed the services of Niklas Hausler and Patrick Hantschke from neuro11, a company that uses neuroscience to work on mental strength training for sportspeople.
Jurgen Klopp praised their work on penalties and set pieces after Liverpool won an epic penalty shoot out to lift the Carabao Cup.
"Incredible impact," he said. “All the players are really excited about it and it’s about bringing specific players before a set-piece in the right mindset by doing the stuff we do on the pitch.
"Although penalties were the most obvious thing it’s all the set-pieces - corners, free-kicks, direct free-kicks, crosses, all those kind of things,” Klopp added.
While it’s difficult to quantify the influence the neuro11 guys have had, not least as Liverpool often have a decent record with set plays, it’s clear that the Reds have made the most of them this season.
They currently lead the Premier League for set piece goals, with 15, and they are also top of the equivalent standings for the Champions League, with five.
Liverpool’s journey to League Cup glory began with a goal from a corner at Norwich and they used set plays to score against Shrewsbury and Cardiff in their first two FA Cup games of 2021/22.
And but for a very narrow and debatable VAR decision ruling out a ‘goal’ from Joel Matip, they may well have won the Carabao Cup final via a dead ball situation too.
In all competitions they’ve yet to go more than seven matches without scoring a set piece goal this season, and even in that period in which they drew a blank, they still beat Atletico Madrid twice and won 5-0 at both Manchester United and Watford.
When competing for the Premier League title it doesn’t matter how the goals come about, but many of the top scoring set play teams from the last decade went on to finish top of the table.
Only three of the last 10 champions scored fewer than the 15 set play goals Liverpool have already amassed in 2021/22, and their rate per game has them on track to finish with 22 in May.
The most recent instance – Virgil van Dijk’s injury time header against Leeds United – merely improved the score line in a match that had already long been won.
But in six of their eight matches in all competitions prior to that, Liverpool didn’t just score from a set play, but they took the lead from one.
Wins against Brentford, Crystal Palace, Cardiff, Leicester and Inter Milan were kickstarted with set piece strikes, and the only goal of the victory at Turf Moor arrived in the same fashion.
As the Reds have won 81% of the league matches in which they scored first since the summer of 2016, and lost just four of the 146 games in question, the importance of being able to break the deadlock from a set play can’t be underestimated.
In a battle for trophies with more heavily financed teams, small margins can be everything, and it appears that by working with neuro11 Liverpool have unearthed yet another in their favour.
