While the Premier League title-race might be going down to the wire, it’s a rather different case elsewhere across the continent with the champions of Spain, Germany, France, Portugal and Netherlands already decided with games left to play.
Along with England and Italy, they are the top seven nations in the UEFA country coefficients. As a result, we already have an idea of some of the sides Liverpool could face in the Champions League group-stages in 2022/23, having already qualified for next season's tournament in what will be the penultimate edition in the current format before its 2024 revamp.
The national champions of England, Spain, Italy, Germany, France and Portugal will all be in pot one for next season’s Champions League group-stages, along with the winners of the European Cup and Europa League. Depending on the outcome of both the Premier League title-race and the Champions League final, this season’s Eredivisie champion could also find themselves seeded in pot one too.
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Should Liverpool overcome their three-point deficit behind Man City with two games left to play to be crowned Premier League champions, they will be seeded in pot one. Alternatively, if they beat Real Madrid in the Champions League final, they will also be seeded in pot one.
But if the Reds suffer double disappointment, then they will instead find themselves seeded in pot two as the highest ranked side in the UEFA club coefficients not to qualify for pot one status. So let’s take a look at who Jurgen Klopp ’s men could face from pot one.
Pot One
If Liverpool failed to win either the Premier League or Champions League, next season’s pot one would look like this…
Man City (Premier League winners)
Real Madrid (La Liga and Champions League winners)
AC Milan/Inter Milan (Serie A winners)
Bayern Munich (Bundesliga winners)
Paris Saint-Germain (Ligue 1 winners)
FC Porto (Liga Portugal winners)
Ajax (Eredivisie winners)
Eintracht Frankfurt/Rangers (Europa League winners)
With the Reds unable to be drawn against sides from the same nation in the Champions League group-stages, so ineligible to face Man City as a result, they would face two games against one of the other seven top seeds next season.
However, if Liverpool won the Champions League but not the Premier League, they would join Man City as a second English side in pot one. If they won the Premier League, regardless of the outcome of the Champions League final, Pep Guardiola’s would be the ones in pot two with Eredivisie champions Ajax instead stepping up to pot one. In either scenario, the Reds avoid the other seven top seeds.
Pot Two
The rest of next season’s Champions League seedings remain unclear with decisive league matches, play-offs and then European qualification still to play. However, some sides have already qualified for next season’s group-stages and could also face Klopp’s men as a result.
Barcelona, Juventus and Atletico Madrid have already qualified and are guaranteed to be in pot two, meaning Liverpool could face any of the trio if they won either of the Premier League or Champions League. And the chances of drawing any of the trio could be significantly higher than other sides in the draw thanks to their domestic rivals.
Third and fourth place in the Premier League are yet to be decided with Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur all vying it for the final two places. However, the trio are all ranked highly enough in UEFA club coefficients to be guaranteed pot two seeding. As a result, their presence increases the likelihood of Liverpool and/or Man City being drawn against one of Barcelona, Juventus and Atletico Madrid if they find themselves in pot one.
Meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund and Red Bull Salzburg have also qualified for the group-stages but don't yet know if they'll be in pot two or three, with their placing dependent upon who finishes fourth in the Bundesliga and La Liga respectively. RB Leipzig and Sevilla currently occupy those two spots but could be overtaken by SC Freiburg and Real Betis with one and two games left to play in Germany and Spain respectively.
Dortmund need one of the duo to fail to qualify to be in pot two, while Salzburg need them both to miss out to avoid being in pot three.
Best of the rest
Elsewhere, Shakhtar Donetsk, Napoli, Sporting Lisbon and Bayer Leverkusen have already qualified for the group-stages and will be in pot three, while Celtic have also secured their place but are yet to find out if they'll be in pot three or pot four. As a result, regardless of Liverpool's own pot, the Reds could face any of the quintet.
Meanwhile, while this year’s Serie A champions are yet to be decided, it’s between AC Milan and Inter Milan with the former currently two points clear at the top of the table with two games left to play. If they win the league, Inter will be in pot three. However, if the reigning champions usurped their local-rivals to defend the title, AC would find themselves in either pot three or pot four with both sides eligible to face the Reds as a result.
The final guaranteed places in next season’s Champions League group-stages will be taken by the runners-up in Ligue 1 (between Marseille, Monaco, Nice, Rennes and Strasbourg) and the winners of the Belgian First Division A Play-off I (Club Brugge or Union SG). They will go into pots three or four depending on coefficient rankings, along with two winners from the Champions League qualification league path play-off round and four winners from the champions path play-off round.
