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FourFourTwo
FourFourTwo
Sport
Kedar Bayley

Liverpool almost SEVEN TIMES more likely to lose when Mohamed Salah doesn’t contribute to a goal

Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah.

When Arne Slot joined Liverpool in 2024, he was almost certainly unaware, even for all of Mohamed Salah’s magic, that he was about to inherit the greatest individual campaign in Premier League history.

In the 2024/25 season, the Egyptian registered 47 goal contributions in 38 games, leading Liverpool to a Premier League title with 84 points and 25 wins domestically.

In all competitions, Salah contributed to 57 goals and Liverpool notched 38 wins, exiting the Champions League to PSG and losing the Carabao Cup final to Newcastle.

When Mohamed Salah doesn't score or assist, Liverpool are almost seven times more likely to lose

During Arne Slot’s tenure, which spans 100 games at Liverpool, Mohamed Salah has scored or assisted in 50 of those matches and either failed to do so or been absent in the other 50.

Liverpool’s win rate when Salah contributes to a goal is 82 per cent, boasting 41 wins, six draws and merely three losses. He has contributed to 74 goals in 87 games for the Reds since Arne Slot joined the club.

Liverpool's win rate with and without a Salah goal involvement falls from 82% to 44% (Image credit: Getty Images)

In stark, almost horrifying contrast, the side’s win rate when Salah blanks is just 44 per cent - a below average 22 wins, seven draws and 20 losses.

When Liverpool play a game in which Salah fails to register a goal involvement, Arne Slot’s men are almost seven times more likely to lose, using an identical sample size of 50 games for each scenario.

The Dutchman's reliance on the star attacker, to put it mildly, borders on the comedic, almost satirical - like a Mr Bean sketch where the lead character wanders into an exam and passes simply by copying from the person next to him.

When Salah, who ranked fifth in FourFourTwo's greatest Premier League players of all time list, fails to contribute to the scoresheet, Liverpool are almost half as likely to win, dropping from 41 wins in 50 games to just 22 wins.

As was the case in Liverpool's loss to Galatasaray on Tuesday evening, which saw Liverpool lose 1-0 without a contribution from Salah. The same occurred in September, when the Reds lost 1-0 again to the Super Lig leaders without the Egyptian adding to the scoresheet.

Slot's mismanagement of the historic Liverpool forward this season is almost unheard of (Image credit: Getty Images)

Somehow, Slot doesn't know what he's got. His decision to substitute the winger off before the 60th minute against Galatasaray – after Salah scored in both his previous two games in the second half – looks even more bizarre when you analyse the Egyptian's goals by 15-minute time intervals.

From minutes 1-45, Salah has scored just under 38 per cent of his goals for Liverpool, compared to around 62 per cent coming in the second half.

From minutes 61-75, Liverpool's talisman has registered over 20 per cent of his goals in a red shirt, and almost 23 per cent came from minutes 76-90.

In the 2025/26 season, Mohamed Salah has taken a Liverpool career worst shots per 90, shots on target per 90, and received his lowest amount of xG and Big Chances per 90. He is also receiving the lowest xG per shot in his time at Anfield (data via Opta).

Slot's failure to find the Egyptian in the channels, in the absence of past partners Trent Alexander-Arnold, Darwin Nunez and Luis Diaz, is in danger of ruining the Egyptian's potential final season at the club - to end a career that could, and arguably should, go down as the greatest from any Liverpool player ever.

This could be Mohamed Salah's last season at the club (Image credit: Getty Images)

Perhaps it stems from Slot's desire to build a system that moves away from Salah… or maybe the Dutchman simply hasn't noticed the problems.

Whatever the answer, the decision to end Salah's career prematurely by prioritising new, less effective forwards in key areas is perhaps the most remarkable mismanagement of any superstar in football history.

But just as the Dutchman lived by Mohamed Salah's sword, he will, unfortunately for him, die by it if things don't change soon.

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