Live Nation went on an acquisition spree in 2024, a trend that it hopes to repeat in 2025—unless an antitrust lawsuit by the Justice Department and nearly 30 states gets in the way.
“I think we're going to stay active on the M&A side," Joe Berchtold, the concert and ticket giant’s president and CFO, told analysts during a recent earnings call.
So far, the antitrust suit, filed in May, hasn't stopped Live Nation from opening its checkbook. On Dec. 3, the company said it would acquire a majority stake in influencer management firm Timeline. The deal, for undisclosed terms, highlights a key business Live Nation is banking on for the future—talent management. Live Nation’s talent business is already substantial, with 380 artists under its wing as of 2023.
Additionally, in November, Live Nation said it planned to buy a majority stake in Portugal's largest concert venue, MEO Arena, in Lisbon. The company has also been expanding in Latin America in recent years by investing in concert promoters.
Earlier this year, Live Nation made a move in the U.S., expanding its presence in Des Moines by acquiring a majority stake in local concert promotions outfit First Fleet Concerts. The financial terms were not disclosed.
Live Nation is said to control 60% of large U.S. amphitheaters and 80% of primary ticketing.
In the antitrust suit against it, Live Nation and its subsidiary, Ticketmaster, are accused of creating monopolies in certain markets related to its promotions and ticketing businesses, killing competition and raising ticket fees for consumers in the process. The suit alleges that Live Nation achieved some of its dominance by acquiring concert venues and then restricting artists from using those venues unless they also signed up for the company’s promotion services. Attorney General Merrick Garland said: “It is time to break up Live Nation-Ticketmaster.”
Live Nation has defended its practices, calling them "sensible, fair, and similar” to competitors.
It’s unclear what impact the lawsuit or any settlement will have on Live Nation’s acquisition strategy or whether it will ultimately have to divest any of its holdings. It's possible the lawsuit could force the company to sell Ticketmaster, which it acquired in 2009 for $2.5 billion. At the time, the Justice Department didn't challenge the merger. Rather, it required the company to license some of its Ticketmaster technology to a competitor, Anschutz Entertainment, but the rival ultimately failed to gain much momentum in ticketing.
Furthermore, Live Nation's image took another beating in 2022 when Ticketmaster's ticketing system crashed during a presale of Taylor Swift's Eras Tour tickets. The glitch, which left many Swifties without seats, renewed calls for the company's breakup.
However, David Karnovsky, a J.P. Morgan senior research analyst, is increasingly expecting a lesser penalty than a major breakup. In a research note earlier this month, he said there is now a “greater probability for a negotiated settlement with the DOJ.”
In any case, looking to 2025, he signaled optimism in Live Nation by raising his price target on its stock to $150. On Monday, the company’s shares closed at $132.50.
“Overall, we view our outlook as conservative,” Karnovsky wrote, adding that 2025 is expected to be a banner year for concert attendance and touted Live Nation’s plans to improve venues.
