Lithuanians are gearing up for the second and final round of parliamentary elections, set to take place on Sunday. The conservative governing party remains a strong contender despite facing challenges such as strict COVID-19 measures, political scandals, and an influx of migrants from Belarus.
Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonyte's government, in power since 2020, has seen a decline in popularity due to these issues. The election comes at a critical time as concerns about Russia's actions, especially in the Baltic region, are heightened following the war in Ukraine.
The outcome of the election will shape the country's political landscape for the next four years. While there may be a shift towards the left, experts suggest that Lithuania's foreign policy, particularly its support for Ukraine as an EU and NATO member, is unlikely to undergo significant changes.
In the first round, the opposition Social Democrats led by Vilija Blinkeviciute secured an edge by winning 20 out of the initial 70 seats. This put them ahead of Šimonyte's Homeland Union party by two seats. Blinkeviciute has expressed intentions to form a coalition with the center-left Democratic Union, which won eight seats, along with a smaller third party.
However, the formation of a stable government by the center-left parties may hinge on the performance of the controversial Nemuno Aušra party, which garnered 15 seats in the first round. The party's leader, Remigijus Žemaitaitis, resigned earlier this year due to antisemitic remarks.
Analysts suggest that no party has a clear majority after the first round, with Šimonyte's Homeland Union and its coalition partner, the Liberal Union, falling short of the 71 seats required for a majority. The potential involvement of Nemuno Aušra could impact the government formation process.
Voters are considering both domestic issues and regional tensions, with concerns about aligning with parties that have controversial backgrounds. While traditional parties have distanced themselves from Nemuno Aušra, the party has expressed support for the Social Democrats' Blinkeviciute in her bid for prime minister.
As the election approaches, the political landscape in Lithuania remains uncertain, with various possibilities for coalition-building and government formation on the horizon.
