So this is interesting. Lions Wire’s Jeff Risdon put together an expansive mock offseason for the Detroit Lions, seeing Dan Campbell’s team open up their war chest of draft picks to go trade for big upgrades to their roster. And one of the first items on his hypothetical agenda is a big trade for New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas.
Let’s preface by noting there’s no reason to think Thomas is on the trade block. First-year Saints head coach Dennis Allen praised Thomas in his recovery from ankle surgery, though he stopped short of sharing a timeline in which to expect Thomas on the field, saying on WWL Radio Tuesday: “I know he’s working extremely hard to get himself back and ready to go. He’s really committed to the season and looking forward to getting started.”
Now onto the fun stuff. Here’s the trade Risdon proposed that would send Thomas to Detroit, and bring star tight end T.J. Hockenson and several draft picks to New Orleans:
“In exchange for the 28-year-old Thomas, who missed the 2021 season with an injury, the Lions give up TE T.J. Hockenson, their own third-round pick in 2022 and the Rams’ first-round pick in the 2023 NFL draft acquired in the Matthew Stafford trade. The Saints also send the Lions a fifth-round pick in 2022 because these sorts of trades invariably include a seemingly superfluous Day 3 pick.”
My gut instinct wasn’t to reject this out of hand. Hockenson is an ascending talent who put up the highest receiving stats per game (averaging 5.1 receptions for 48.6 yards, which would have led the Saints last year) of his career in 2021, though a hand injury cost him the final five weeks of the season. Just 24 years old, he’s a former first round pick the Saints could have through 2023 thanks to his fifth year option. Adam Trautman and Nick Vannett aren’t high-end starters. Hockenson would be a tremendous upgrade.
But how much would the Saints lose in Thomas? Potentially a future Hall of Famer. He started his career on a historic pace, extending Drew Brees’ career by a year or two and putting up numbers few receivers have ever compared to. It sure feels like a lot of fans have forgotten how talented he is when healthy. Losing two years to a complicated ankle injury and bizarrely postponed surgery, which didn’t take as expected, will do that.
On the other hand, the Saints aren’t really in a position to put all of their hopes on Thomas in 2022. They can’t assume that he’ll return and immediately look like the Offensive Player of the Year again. He’s such a competitive player with such a strong resume that it’s tough to bet against him, but there isn’t much precedent for this situation. If they had the opportunity to offload his contract, bring in cheap talent, and load up with draft picks, it might be hard to say no.
And that 2023 Rams pick is awful enticing. Los Angeles has assembled the frailest roster in the league by trading so many of their own picks, building a house of cards that’s just a couple of injuries away from collapse. No team has benefited from better injury luck over the last five years, and no team has needed it worse than L.A. If Stafford or Aaron Donald or Cooper Kupp misses time next season, the Saints could very easily inherit a top-10 selection. It’s something the Rams are prepared to live with if they win a Super Bowl along the way.
With that said, I’m going to need something better than the 66th overall pick in this year’s draft to pull the trigger. Detroit owns the Nos. 2 and 34 picks as well as the Rams’ first rounder, which will be either No. 31 or 32. Bump that 2022 third rounder up to the 34th selection and we just might cut a deal. What do you think? Share your take in our comments section.
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