Monday Night Football always seems to make the day drag so long. Normally I write this weekly piece over the morning coffee, but today’s edition comes while anxiously waiting for kickoff in a few hours after lunchtime.
Why I think the Lions will win
- The Detroit pass rush should create a lot of problems for the Raiders offensive line and QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Left tackle Kolton Miller is a pretty strong pass protector; he’ll be a good matchup for Aidan Hutchinson when they square off, and he’s not a guy who needs or likes TE help (Taylor Decker is that way too). The Raiders right tackle is Thayer Munford. Hutchinson has faced him before…
Young guys take note. This is how you fire through a guy! ( via @aidanhutch97 ) pic.twitter.com/fjwCVtLZ5P
— Europe’s Elite (@EuropesEliteEE) December 11, 2021
- The Raiders passing offense doesn’t stretch the field, which plays into the hands of Detroit’s defense. Garoppolo is one of the worst downfield passers in the league, completing just 36 percent of his passes beyond 20 yards (that’s 28th in the NFL; Jared Goff is 1st at 69 percent). They don’t even try deep shots often despite having a mismatch (against everyone) in Davante Adams on the outside. It’s similar to the Buccaneers matchup with Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans. The Lions are vulnerable over the top but do a pretty nice job containing what’s in front of them in coverage — and even better when the safeties aren’t worried about deep shots.
- Despite the Lions offensive line being badly banged up, they still should (should!) match up well against the Raiders in pass protection. Maxx Crosby is essentially the only Raider who is not a below-average threat rushing the passer. Crosby is exceptional, but he’s basically flying solo. Makes it much easier to scheme help packages and identify the threats for the inexperienced Lions’ interior protection.
- The young Alabama speed should have a real advantage in this game. Jahmyr Gibbs at running back and Jameson Williams at wide receiver need to step up, especially with Amon-Ra St. Brown not at full strength. Call me crazy, but I think the youngsters rise to the occasion and remind the Ford Field fans why the Lions drafted them in the first round of the last two drafts. The Raiders do not match up well with offenses that have multiple speed options.
- The Las Vegas secondary is one of the worst-tackling units in the league. Lions TE Sam LaPorta is already one of the NFL’s best at YAC. LaPorta will have opportunities to turn a 6-yard slant into a 31-yard TD.
What worries me about the Raiders
- They’re a team without much of a middle class. Normally that’s a limiting factor, but their stars are real problems for Detroit. Crosby, Adams, RB Josh Jacobs–those guys are really good. It’s when the unexpected guys have strong games that the Raiders become really formidable. And they’re overdue for that after getting trounced by rhe lowly Bears. Guys like Bilal Nichols and Jakobi Meyers have that potential, and the Lions have shown vulnerability to the unexpected superstar.
- The injuries across the Lions lineup are a legit concern. Detroit has better depth than most squads, but it’s going to be tested with so many players sidelined or limping into the last game before the bye week.
- Expanding on that idea, the complexity of Ben Johnson’s offense is great when the line is intact. With as many as three starters in new spots, it’s asking a lot for the replacements to emulate the complex blocking schemes and assignments of the starters. It went poorly in Baltimore, to be kind. Johnson has not always adjusted well to the personnel on hand. If he asks Graham Glasgow to be Frank Ragnow at center, it’s apt to be problematic. If Johnson tunes the offense to what Glasgow and the reserve OGs do well, everything should be fine. If not, it could be a very long night for Jared Goff and an even longer one for Jahmyr Gibbs and Craig Reynolds at running back.
Final score prediction
Early in the week, I expected the Lions to cruise to an easy win in this one. The injuries have diminished my expectations for the double-digit home romp for Detroit. The sportsbooks agree too; the line has fallen from 8.5 points in Detroit’s favor down to 7 in most books. That’s right where I’m at. Lions 23, Raiders 16.
