It’s Christmas Eve and that means we get Detroit Lions football today. Week 16 kicks off around the league on Saturday, including the Lions visit to Charlotte to play the 5-9 Carolina Panthers.
The 7-7 Lions have a chance to augment their postseason chances with a win. It would be the seventh win in eight games for Dan Campbell’s Lions, turning around the insipid 1-6 start.
The Panthers will not be an easy opponent. Interim head coach Steve Wilks has done a pretty good job of disaster control with his team, managing to stay relevant in the NFC South playoff chase despite firing starting QB Baker Mayfield and trading away the team’s best player, RB Christian McCaffrey. They’re a dangerous foe despite their 5-9 record and lowly statistical rankings.
Here’s what is on my mind about the game a couple hours before kickoff
Win the run game
The weather in Charlotte isn’t great. Not nearly as bad as my place here in West Michigan, where it’s 10 degrees and I can’t see the house across the street with all the blowing snow, but temps in the 20s and a steady breeze between 10 and 15 MPH isn’t ideal for a domed Detroit team.
The Lions need to run the ball better than they have the last two weeks. Specifically, RBs Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift each need to play better than they have. The line has been solid, but Swift and especially Williams just haven’t found the creases or broken the tackles that they were earlier in the season.
Then there’s Carolina and their schizophrenic run game. Check their rushing yard totals in the last six weeks, going back from Week 15:
21
223
185
36
232
64
One point for the Lions I like here: Carolina QB Sam Darnold does not run. It’s nearly all RBs D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard that get it done for the Panthers. Detroit’s average yards per carry to running backs over the last six weeks: 3.4 yards, a figure that would tie the 49ers for the best YPC allowed for the season.
Good decisions from Goff
Jared Goff hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 9, covering 219 attempts — a Lions team record. The fact Goff is doing that while still staying aggressive in looking down the field is very impressive.
The Panthers have a defense that can force mistakes. Brian Burns is a double-digit sack guy off the edge, and Frankie Luvu has shown he can bring the heat as well. Jaycee Horn probably deserved a Pro Bowl nod at CB. C.J. Henderson has some nice ball skills in the secondary, too.
I suspect Goff does give one away today. How he handles the miscue and if/how it impacts offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will be very telling. The Panthers do not have the depth or breadth of personnel to handle all the weapons available for Goff and Johnson. Getting conservative in the face of adversity is about the only way I see the Lions offense not finding success in Carolina.
DL challenge
Carolina’s offensive line is better than you might think. Rookie Ikem Ekwonu has acquitted himself nicely at left tackle. Much in the way it took Detroit’s Penei Sewell about half a year to get his footing in the NFL, that’s what’s happening for Ekwonu. Left guard Brady Christensen and right tackle Taylor Moton are pass pro specialists that will present a challenge for Aidan Hutchinson, John Cominsky and the Lions front.
This is a game where Detroit needs an impactful day from someone else It could be Romeo Okwara, James Houston, Alex Anzalone as a blitzer, Alim McNeill in the middle. Heck, Hutchinson could still do it himself despite the blocking attention he’ll get. Someone will have to step up in the Detroit front to help out a secondary that doesn’t match up well with D.J. Moore.
Prediction
I see the Lions winning as long as they don’t stumble early in the game. Seizing momentum in the cold and in front of what will likely be a sedated crowd would go a long way toward a Detroit road victory. I expect this one to be sloppier and more nerve-racking than most Lions fans would like it to be, but the better team wins.
Lions 24, Panthers 18
