Happy Thanksgiving! The annual national spotlight game for the Detroit Lions sees the home team welcoming NFC North rival Green Bay to Ford Field.
This year’s game is unlike any Thanksgiving game for the Lions in a very long time. The Lions are 8-2, their best 10-game start since 1962. Meanwhile, the Packers have fallen from perennial playoff contender to a banged-up 4-6 start.
Here’s what I’m thinking about the game as I drink the morning coffee and look ahead to the turkey day extravaganza.
Why I think the Lions will win
- The first matchup back in Week 4 was one of the strongest performances by the Lions of the Dan Campbell era. The game was not nearly as close as the 34-20 final score; the Lions led 27-3 deep into the third quarter and allowed only 23 yards on Green Bay’s first six offensive possessions. That the Packers mounted a bit of a late rally should only reinforce to Campbell’s Lions that they cannot relent or overlook Green Bay, too.
- All those Green Bay injuries. The Packers will be without several key starters, including RB Aaron Jones and TE Luke Musgrave on offense and CB Jaire Alexander and S Darnell Savage on defense. The Packers don’t have proven depth to replace any of the walking wounded.
- The Lions hold a major advantage with their rushing offense against Green Bay’s run defense. It starts with the line, but the innate ability of David Montgomery to force missed tackles proves especially effective against a team like the Packers that struggles in pursuit and containment.
- The resiliency Campbell’s team showed on Sunday in playing nowhere close to their best and somehow still overcoming and winning really stands out. It’s hard to imagine the team playing so flat and sloppy once again. Jared Goff has been very good at burying bad performances in the past and I expect no different in front of the raucous home fans.
What worries me about the Packers
- They want payback for how the Lions embarrassed them in Green Bay in the season finale last year. And the Week 4 prime-time matchup. Even though they’re the youngest team and without several key players, there is organizational pride and that’s not to be ignored.
- The Packers defensive line has impressive talent. Rashan Gary has emerged as a very good pass rusher, and the interior line is the veteran strength of the team.
- The young receiving speed and talent in Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson and Jayden Reed (and Dontayvion Wicks if he plays) is capable of doing a lot of damage to a spotty Lions pass defense that badly lacks depth on the outside. If the rush can’t impact Jordan Love, Green Bay’s recent draft investment at WR can be a big problem.
- My own overconfidence in the Lions. They’re clearly the better team, they are a rough overall matchup for the Packers, and they’re healthy. The game shouldn’t be close. It’s hard to describe the uneasy angst that produces for Lions fans sailing in these uncharted waters.
Final prediction
I see the Lions asserting themselves as the better team, coming out firing and curbing any drama. The Packers will get some points, no doubt. The Lions will get even more.
Lions 36, Packers 23
