The Detroit Lions playing on Monday Night Football in the NFL’s penultimate weekend is pretty special, even though the MNF game will be played on Saturday night. It’s that oddity that swirls around the morning coffee mug as I anxiously await watching the NFC North champions play a de facto playoff game.
Or will it be a playoff game feel for Detroit? It certainly will for Dallas, what with the Cowboys playing for the NFC East title and the home playoff game(s) that comes with that. For the Lions? Detroit already wrapped up at least the No. 3 seed. The No. 2 and perhaps even No. 1 seed are still within reach, and that should be powerful enough motivation for Dan Campbell and his Lions players.
Why I think the Lions will win
- The running game. It’s not just the combination of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, arguably the NFL’s best 1-2 punch at running back. It’s also not just Detroit’s intact offensive line, the top run-blocking unit (per PFF) in the league. It’s also the Cowboys being a defensive front that is designed to rush the passer and only rush the passer. They’re really freaking good at rushing the passer. Against the run? Dallas allows 4.98 yards per carry on 1st-and-10, 31st in the NFL. In the last five games, that figure balloons to 5.8. As long as Ben Johnson remembers to run, the Lions should thrive at it.
- The run game, part two. Dallas is a league-average run offense. They’re 12th in yards per game and 15th in yards per carry. Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle aren’t a bad combo. But they’re not exceptional, and their offensive line hasn’t been up to typical Cowboys standards either. When Dallas has to run the ball, it’s not something they can reliably do. That’s especially true in the red zone, where the Cowboys are the NFL’s worst team at scoring touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line.
- The Cowboys defense loves to take advantage of careless ball security and panicky quarterbacks to create takeaways. For most of the season, Jared Goff has been smart about avoiding calamitous plays like that. The Lions are tied for 20th in total fumbles, so it’s not a major issue for the offense, either.
- For the first time in a long while, the Lions are the hunters in this game. The switch back to predator from being the prey should serve Campbell and the Lions well. The Cowboys don’t exactly have a recent history of handling the “big game” pressure all that well, either. Packers fans recall this about Mike McCarthy as the head coach, too.
What worries me about the Cowboys
- Dak Prescott is the exact type of quarterback that gives the Lions defense fits. He’s a mobile QB who looks to throw down the field on the move more than he wants to run, though he can run, too. Prescott is having an MVP-caliber season, throwing with great accuracy and many fewer mistakes than he’s done in recent years. He used to be a guy that pressure would rattle into bad throws. This year, Prescott has learned the value of just taking the sack and living for the next down.
- Prescott is one of the NFL’s best deep throwers, and he’s got some good downfield receivers in CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and even the best TE you’ve never heard of, Jake Ferguson. Detroit’s biggest defensive weakness is defending the deep pass — and that’s with top CB Cam Sutton healthy. Sutton is questionable with a toe injury, which could lead to downfield struggles even if he plays. Detroit’s black hole at outside CB opposite Sutton and issues with safeties understanding deeper coverage responsibilities are a very bad matchup against Dallas.
- Micah Parsons and the Cowboys deep pass rush can make life miserable if the opponent has to throw. Quarterbacks like Goff, who lack mobility or quickness and savvy in the in-pocket movement department, typically don’t fare well against their quick pressure. It feeds into a playmaking secondary featuring Daron Bland, who has already set the NFL record for pick-sixes in a season. The Cowboys defense will gamble to try and get the big play, knowing that even if they give up a big play, their offense can usually cover up those misses. It’s wildly empowering for players like Parsons, Bland and dynamic young Markquese Bell, guys who live to make the highlight reel even if they don’t do the down-to-down play all that effectively.
- The Cowboys special teams are fantastic, from dangerous return man Kavontae Turpin to stellar rookie kicker Brandon Aubrey, who is a perfect 33-of-33 on field goals. That includes 8-for-8 from beyond 50 yards. Punter Bryan Anger is having a stronger, more consistent year than Detroit’s Jack Fox, too — in part thanks to more reliable coverage units that do not blow assignments. If it comes down to a field position or field goal battle, Dallas has a major advantage over Detroit’s occasionally great but often average special teams.
Final score prediction
This is a tough one. Before the season, when going through the schedule, this was the easiest loss to predict on the entire Lions calendar. It still is, unfortunately. While the Lions’ strengths match up nicely with what Dallas doesn’t do well, the opposite is even truer in this matchup. Cowboys 33, Lions 28.
