The 4-1 Detroit Lions visit the 3-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a key early-season NFC matchup. Both teams are looking to solidify their early divisional leads in a late-afternoon kickoff that much of the nation will get to watch.
It’s an interesting matchup, one that has my head spinning in several different directions as I drain the Sunday morning pot of coffee. Here’s what I’m feeling in the hour leading up to the Week 6 kickoff.
Why I think the Lions will win
- Detroit’s run defense is a top-5 unit across the board. Tampa Bay’s rushing offense is the worst in the league, both in yards per carry (3.0) and the number of explosive runs of 15 yards or more; they’re the only team without a single run longer than 15 yards. The interior matchup of Alim McNeill, Isaiah Buggs and John Cominsky (when he kicks inside) against the Buccaneers IOL combination of Robert Hainsey, Cody Mauch and Matt Feiler is the single biggest advantage either team has in any matchup.
- The Lions are well-equipped to win a scoring war against Tampa Bay. It’s not that the Bucs lack weaponry with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cade Otten around a resurgent Baker Mayfield. They simply don’t score a lot. Their offense has just eight touchdowns in four games, while Detroit’s attack has posted 18 in five games — against a tougher overall defensive slate, too.
- David Montgomery has emerged as one of the best running backs in the league at forcing missed tackles (21 on 88 attempts, 4th in the league). The Buccaneers, specifically LB Devin White, are one of the worst-tackling defenses in the NFL in run defense. While the Pro Football Focus tackling grades are nearly the same, the Buccaneers get bumped up because their defensive backs tackle after the catch extremely well and their pass rushers don’t miss sack attempts. The Bucs have actually missed more tackles in run defense than the Lions despite playing one fewer game.
- The coaching staff has done a very good job of keeping the 4-1 team hungry and focused. Complacency is not an issue. Game preparation should not be an issue. Handling what looks like a pretty good football team is what Dan Campbell and his staff have prepared this Lions team to be. I don’t think they’ll overlook the Bucs or be caught off-guard by anything they see.
What worries me about Tampa Bay
- Relative health of the two teams could be a very big issue. Tampa Bay is coming off a bye and has every key player available. The Lions will be without at least three key players (LG Jonah Jackson, DB Brian Branch, RB Jahmyr Gibbs) and they don’t have depth players who can fully replace what any of them give at their respective positions. Sam LaPorta looks like he’ll play, but how limited will he be? How limited will Taylor Decker continue to be at left tackle? How will Amon-Ra St. Brown look in his return? Meanwhile, the Bucs had a week off to ease up the thigh bruises, the sore shoulders, the tired knees, etc. Freshness matters.
- Baker Mayfield is dangerous. He’s inconsistent and prone to occasional disaster, but he’s also handily the best quarterback the Lions have seen since Geno Smith back in Week 2. In fact, he plays a lot like Geno Smith–using his agility to keep downfield passing plays alive. He’s the best QB in the NFL on third down through Week 5. Detroit struggles against that type of QB, especially one with the receivers Mayfield (and Smith) have to work with. Mayfield is playing the like Baker in Cleveland who led the Browns to a playoff win in Pittsburgh not that long ago a lot more than he resembles the player who bounced between three teams in 2022.
- Tampa Bay’s defense creates takeaways better than they get stops. While Jared Goff remains excellent with his decisions and execution, he can’t have slip-ups. Shaq Barrett and Vita Vea are very good at creating pressure. Antoine Winfield Jr. is an exceptional blitzer from the safety spot. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is a tough matchup on the edge. The defense around the top dogs is very adept at capitalizing on mistakes.
Final score prediction
I think this is a 50/50 game. If they played 100 times right now, I think they’d split those outcome evenly. As long as the Lions don’t lose the turnover battle and can convert in the red zone, they’ve got a very good shot to improve to 5-1. The rested Bucs team with a smart defensive head coach and time to plan for the banged-up Lions worries me more than a little, however. Lions 24, Buccaneers 21
