All eyes will be on Ford Field later today when the Detroit Lions host the Buffalo Bills in the marquee matchup of Week 15. The Lions logo at midfield will be as black as my Sunday morning coffee–not that any extra stimulation is needed to get excited by the Lions vs Bills at 4:25 ET.
This matchup is rightly touted as a potential Super Bowl preview. The 10-3 Bills clinched the AFC East weeks ago, while the 12-1 Lions secured a playoff berth last week and are still gunning for a second straight NFC North crown. Detroit is first in scoring and second in points allowed, while the Bills offense is No. 2 and scoring defense isn’t far behind at eighth.
It shapes up to be an exciting one. Here’s how I see it playing out as I sip the coffee and anxiously await kickoff in a few hours.
Why I think the Lions will win
There are many Xs and Os reasons to like the Lions in this matchup, but the biggest reason I like the Lions to prevail comes from something more abstract. It’s about how head coach Dan Campbell answered a question early in the week about staying sharp out of the necessity of holding off really good teams in Minnesota and Philadelphia in the NFC playoff race.
“I love it,” Campbell said Wednesday of the close competition. “I think it’s great. I think it’s great for us. I think it does, it keeps you sharp. I’ve mentioned this before, I think we do well with pressure and it’s the right kind of friction and stress that we need and it’s motivating.”
Campbell wants the pressure. He wants his team to feel that pressure because they’re built to thrive in it. This is not a team that’s going to get complacent or dull, period. They understand to a man that this is another proving ground for Detroit. Can they beat a very good Buffalo team with the likely MVP on a prominent national stage? These Lions run to that challenge, not shrinking away or expecting help in the race for the No. 1 seed.
On the Xs and Os front, this is a game that sets up very well for Jared Goff and play-action. Buffalo is one of the worst run defenses on 1st-and-10, giving up 5.0 yards per carry. By way of comparison, Detroit’s defense allows just 4.1 yards per carry on 1st-and-10, ranking in the top 10. Detroit’s run offense produces 5.2 yards on 1st-and-10 carries and hits explosive run (10 yards or more) at a higher rate than any other offense.
That puts the Bills defense in a bind. If they devote extra resources to slowing down Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery on early downs, Goff has been very sharp on play action. That creates major matchup advantages for Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tim Patrick as receivers in the intermediate range off play action. Sam LaPorta, too. And with Buffalo’s starting CB, Rasul Douglas, out with injury, that can also free up a deep shot or two to Jameson Williams.
But if Buffalo worries about the bevy of passing game weapons, the Detroit offensive line and the Sonic and Knuckles combination can run around, past and through the lighter fronts. Goff and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson have been pretty good at understanding how to manipulate and exploit whichever advantage the Bills defense presents to them. Getting Taylor Decker back at left tackle opens up the left side for runs and screens more than it has been in the three games (Houston plus the last two) which No. 68 missed, making Detroit even tougher to defend.
Special teams are also a big lean to Detroit in this one, from kicker to punter and return man/coverage. Punt returner Brandon Codrington is a good one, but the Bills don’t really block consistently well for him. Bills kicker Tyler Bass has four missed extra points and is a 50 percent proposition between 40 and 50 yards–though he does have a 61-yarder to his credit this year. The consistency and confidence in Dave Fipp’s Detroit special teams units, as well as Dan Campbell’s “play to win” bravado, could be huge factors favoring the Lions.
On defense, the Lions man coverage on the outside is better in every spot than the Bills receiving corps is at getting open. Don’t mistake that for a lack of ability from the likes of Khalil Shakir or recently acquired Amari Cooper from being big threats, but the Bills passing game is more about tight throws and breaking tackles than it is creating open runners and forcing blown coverages. That sets up nicely for playmaking safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch to take some liberties in trying to make the big play.
A healthier defensive front can only help the pass rush, too. Getting DJ Reader and Josh Paschal back for his game is fantastic, because they’re the most run-responsible defensive linemen Detroit has. This is not an offense to heavily blitz or rely upon sacks and pressures as much as it’s one to contain Josh Allen and make him uncomfortable and impatient. Reader and Alim McNeill occupying the front of the pocket will not let Allen get easy escape routes or open running lanes very often.
What concerns me about the Bills
Simple answer: Josh Allen. He’s the clubhouse leader for NFL MVP and a deserving one, even more than Goff. Allen is the catalyst for everything on the Bills offense and is the most dangerous quarterback the Lions will see all season–even if they make it to the Super Bowl.
Allen is incredibly difficult to sack or tackle as a runner. His size, strength and tough balance present very real challenges. So does his rocket launcher of a right arm, which has been more accurate than his detractors would have you believe. This season, Allen has been much better at avoiding the “hero ball” mistakes that have pockmarked his career.
Allen doesn’t post huge passing numbers often, but some of that is by schematic design. He does have some capable receivers who can give the Lions issues, notably TE Dalton Kincaid, who is back healthy for the Bills. Kincaid is a very similar player to Detroit’s own Sam LaPorta, and from the same draft class.
I’ve been reliably informed that the Lions had a very favorable evaluation of Kincaid in the 2023 draft, but LaPorta’s better blocking and burst earned him the nod. As a receiver, what LaPorta does for the Lions offense, Kincaid can do for the Bills. With the Lions linebacking corps in major flux, that could be a problem–one compounded by the need for the Detroit LBs to never lose sight or mind of Allen as a running threat. There is also Allen’s well-proven ability to coax pass interference penalties on broken plays with throws that almost seem purposely “off” enough to make the receiver have to go through the defender to get it, often earning a flag. Be wary, Terrion Arnold…
Defensively, the biggest concern with Buffalo is their well-honed propensity for creating turnovers. The Bills have created the third-most takeaways, with 24. They’re also third in forcing fumbles (14) and recovering them (11), something Dan Campbell referenced in his press briefings during the week. That’s not a coincidence; Campbell knows how well the Bills coaches emphasize takeaways and there might not be a better back seven in football at stripping the ball from an offensive player on the way to the ground.
The Bills scoring defense is 8th overall, probably better than you’d expect given how lowly-regarded they’ve been by many Detroit outlets. The fresh loss to the Rams, where Buffalo couldn’t really cover or tackle anyone, probably gives a little too much recency bias. I expect a proud team to rebound and not make nearly as many “MAs”, Dan Campbell parlance for missed assignments.
Final score prediction
Buffalo is a very good, very capable team. The Lions are too, and playing at home with some much-needed extra rest and practice time will carry Detroit to its 12th win in a row.
Lions 37, Bills 31
