The Lions moved on from Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift this offseason in favor of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Detroit’s new and improved running back duo is set to inherit a ton of responsibility in one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses.
Williams was the first shoe to drop. On the heels of his first 1,000-yard season, which saw him lead the league with 17 rushing touchdowns, he signed a three-year, $12-million deal with the Saints a day after free agency began. The Lions were quick to pivot to Montgomery, inking the former Bears’ lead back to a three-year, $18-million contract.
The next big move came on the first day of the draft when the front office shockingly selected Gibbs 12th overall. Soon after that pick, Swift was traded to the Eagles for draft compensation to complete the running back replacement in the Motor City.
Williams’s 262 carries were the seventh-most in the NFL in 2022, Swift accounted for 99 attempts and free agent Justin Jackson, finished third on the team with 42 rushes. In total, Detroit has 403 vacated running back carries, according to 4for4, the most in the league by far. That total accounts for 94.6% of their carries at the position from the previous season, which also leads the league by a wide margin.
The Lions finished 14th in both rushing rate (43.96%) and Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA metric.
Despite the turnover, there’s reason to believe Detroit could make strides on the ground this season. Johnson is back for another year to call the offense, guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai is set to return from injury to an offensive line ranked No. 5 by PFF and defensive upgrades may allow the Lions to lean on their rushing attack more often when they’re not playing from behind.
Here’s how things might play out in the Motor City this season.
Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Football Outlook
The investment the front office made in the draft is as good an indication as any that Gibbs will be heavily involved as a rookie. Though the pick was widely considered a reach, there’s zero question regarding his talent.
Gibbs enjoyed the finest season of his collegiate career at Alabama after spending two seasons at Georgia Tech. He set career-highs across the board: 151 carries, 926 yards, seven touchdowns and an impressive 6.1 yards per carry. (He also did plenty of damage for the Crimson Tide as a pass-catcher; you can read more about his potential impact as a receiver here.)
At 5’9”, 199 pounds, Gibbs doesn’t necessarily have the physical profile of a lead back. He ironically has a similar build to Swift — and he ran a faster 40-yard dash at the combine — and he could be used similarly to his predecessor. In 2021, Swift played 13 games and logged a career-high 151 carries and added 62 catches. Gibbs could be looking at an even larger workload on the ground, which would put him in line for roughly 175 carries over a full season in addition to his pass-catching work.
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David Montgomery Fantasy Football Outlook
Montgomery’s stats in his final season with the Bears do not jump off the page. He finished with a workman-like line of 201 carries for 801 yards to go along with five scores. Montgomery’s 4.0 yards per carry was the second-best mark of his career but he set career-lows in carries, yards and touchdowns as quarterback Justin Fields took off as a runner.
No one is confusing Montgomery for an explosive runner. Only two of his carries in 2022 went for more than 20 yards and his longest rush of the season went for 28 yards. But his 20 broken tackles and 2.0 yards after contact per attempt help offset the lack of big plays.
Montgomery has the sixth-most rushing attempts since he entered the league in 2019 (915). He logged 200-plus carries each season for Chicago and averaged roughly 15 carries per game. He peaked with 243 rushes for 1,070 yards in 2021 on his way to an RB4 finish, which was aided by a career-high 54 receptions. Montgomery should be in line for his fifth straight year with more than 200 carries and his efficiency may see an uptick behind a much better offensive line.
Detroit Lions Running Back Summary
The Lions laid the blueprint last season for having two successful fantasy running backs when Williams finished as the RB13 and Swift (in 14 games) was the RB21. Montgomery and Gibbs are about as close to a one-to-one replacement as Detroit could get for their outgoing running backs. Montgomery (26) is younger than Williams (28) and Gibbs (21) is younger than Swift (24), so it was a good move for their long-term outlook. The touchdown production might not be there for Montgomery the way it was for Williams but the volume certainly will be. Montgomery’s situation undoubtedly improved and with an average draft position of RB25, three rounds after Gibbs (RB13), Montgomery feels like a value at RB2 or flex. As for Gibbs, he might do more damage through the air, but even just 10 carries per game gets him up to 170 on the year, which is more than Swift ever logged. Gibbs is walking into a very fantasy-friendly situation with a veteran in the room to do damage between the tackles, a stout offensive line to clear running lanes and a sharp offensive mind in Johnson to set him up for success.
Editor’s Note: Welcome to the second annual installment of “The Replacements,” an SI Fantasy series focused on vacated volume that projects how teams will replace production year-to-year. This offseason, we’re analyzing the six teams with the highest percentage of available targets and the six teams with the highest percentage of available carries heading into 2023.
