It was a tough night for Sarina Wiegman and her charges at the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. England’s biggest loss since a 6-2 defeat by Germany in the Euro 2009 final and their first loss in a qualifier since 2002 shattered their ambition of securing top spot in their 2027 World Cup group and automatic qualification for the finals in Brazil.
The 4-0 scoreline was bruising, but the performance against Spain even more so and there was no sugar-coating by Wiegman. Her England side “didn’t play good enough”, “couldn’t get into another gear” and “hardly got into the 18 yard box”.
There is a sliver of hope for the Lionesses. The world champions travel to Reykjavik to play Iceland in conditions that suit the home team, as England found to their cost in April. Unlikely as it seems, but any dropped points by Spain and a win at home against Ukraine would flip the script.
The more likely outcome on Tuesday is a win apiece, leaving England tied on 15 points but with Spain topping the group due to their superior goals scored in the head-to-head games between the sides.
In that sense, it feels harsh that England will face the playoffs after such a strong qualifying campaign, but had the roles been reversed, then Spain would feel equally hard done by.
Only the top four League A group winners progress automatically, with 32 teams heading into a two-round playoff phase for seven further Uefa spots at the World Cup and one in an inter-confederation playoff to potentially earn Europe a 12th team at the tournament.
Uefa qualifying is set up to be bottom-heavy, giving mid- and low-ranked sides the chance to earn a place at the finals. But that means heaping extra games on the leading nations whose players are suffering from a congested calendar.
Meanwhile, only half of the confederations, Uefa, Conmebol (South America) and OFC (Oceania), organise separate qualifying competitions, with the rest using their continental championships for a place at the World Cup.
For England, the prospect of playoff matches in October and then November into December is far from ideal, leaving them with less time to prepare for next summer’s World Cup.
Instead of carefully selected friendlies they will play a first- or second-place League C team over two legs, then the winner of one of the matches between a second- or third-place League B team and a team that finished bottom of League A or top of League B, again over two legs. At worst, the second round could throw up Belgium or Portugal.
England’s defeat on Friday highlighted that there is still work to do and there can be no complacency. It’s not time to panic, though. One defeat in an otherwise excellent run of form does not constitute a crisis and England’s record at responding to setbacks has been strong.
They are an excellent tournament team despite some inconsistent performances in between major competitions. After Euro 2022, they failed to earn qualification to the Paris Olympics for Team GB after a disappointing Nations League campaign. There were also question marks following some questionable performances in the build up to the 2025 Euros.
There are issues that need resolving: who is the best back up to Lucy Bronze, who can stake a serious claim at left-back, who is England’s leading No 10, how do they ensure Lauren James remains fit and firing; and how do they get game time for some of the next generation while needing consistency in the playoffs.
For all the doubts, England have arguably the best manager in women’s football and are well equipped to find solutions within the next 12 months.
Some of Wiegman’s decisions have been questionable such as ommitting Aggie Beever-Jones, leaving England light on centre-forward options after a solid showing in the World Sevens tournament.
It is also hard to know where the plan to shift Lauren Hemp centrally and Alessia Russo deeper fits in the broader experiment with alternative centre-forward options between now and next June.
While the Spain game was a wake-up call, there is a long way to go before England’s obituaries need to be written.
