For the first time since the invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is fighting to defend the home front and not the frontline. He looks weaker, humiliated and more distracted than before mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin mounted his short-lived challenge, boosting the morale of Kyiv and allies amid a grueling counter-offensive that’s made slow progress.
But the West shouldn’t overplay a good hand. As historical parallels go, this seems less like 1917 than 1905 — when a mutiny on the Potemkin warship was repressed and didn’t morph into a revolution. Nothing suggests a game-changer on the battlefield yet. Ukraine’s allies should unite on a prudent “keep calm and carry on” line of beefing up assistance to Ukraine as much as possible for the counter-offensive this summer, and on hashing out a long-term security commitment to avoid widening divides among allies at a NATO summit in two weeks.
So far, Washington and European capitals have successfully avoided the obvious traps associated with the ill-fated Wagner revolt. Officials have stayed tight-lipped and described the extraordinary cracks in the Kremlin’s facade of control as an “internal” matter for Russia — as did Putin’s allies in Beijing. Behind the scenes, the prospect of Moscow and its 6,000 nuclear warheads falling in the hands of an ultra-nationalist warlord wasn’t seen as a happy one. Still, the urge to avoid taking sides is such that US sanctions on Wagner’s operations may be delayed, the Wall Street Journal reported.
