THE link between Scots’ views on independence and how they vote for parliamentary parties came to a “decisive” end in the 2024 General Election, according to new research.
In the 2021 Holyrood election, 92% of people were found to have voted for a party that aligned with their position on independence, either for or against.
But new data published by the Scottish Election Study in the wake of the General Election has now pointed to a slight correlation in the opposite direction: Areas which voted Yes in the 2014 referendum are now less likely to back the SNP than areas which voted No.
The research, compiled by Marta Miori, a research officer at Oxford University’s Nuffield College, led to three key conclusions:
- That Scots' views on independence and the party they back in a General Election are no longer linked after a "decisive break" between the two
- That more Yes voters are now backing Unionist parties than vice versa
- And that the SNP lost more support in Yes-voting areas than No-voting ones
On the first takeaway, the research found that relatively strong correlation between independence views and General Election votes in 2015 had fallen in 2017 and 2019, before plummeting in 2024.
1. At the constituency level, independence referendum vote and general election party choice are no longer correlated. pic.twitter.com/Hbt0SQUyWf
— Scottish Election Study 🏴🗳️ (@ScotVoting) August 5, 2024
Mioro wrote that the link had now "ended".
“The relationship between referendum vote and support for pro-independence parties has become so weak that it no longer constitutes a meaningful correlation," she went on.
“Going further, the weak relationship that does exist is negative: Although only marginally, places with a higher share of Yes vote in 2014 are now less likely to support pro-independence parties than No areas.”
Mioro further said: “Throughout the period of constitutional alignment, the relationship between support for independence and party choice was stronger on the Yes side. While almost all Yes voters supported a pro-independence party between 2015 and 2019, No voters were more likely to spread out across pro-indy and pro-Union parties.”
However, Mioro said the “picture for 2024 is completely different”, writing: “Relative to the percentage of 2014 Yes support in each seat, pro-independence parties have now under-performed in almost all constituencies.
“With pro-Union parties winning a majority of seats across both Yes and No areas, it is now pro-independence voters that are making a bigger constitutional compromise.”
The research aligns with observations made by polling expert Professor John Curtice ahead of the General Election. In April 2023, Curtice told The National that more and more 2014 Yes voters were saying they would not vote SNP, which he said was a “problem” for the party.
Elsewhere, Mioro’s research also found that the SNP had lost more support in Yes-voting areas, although they did have more votes to lose.
“Rather than being the last remaining strongholds of an overall declining SNP support, Yes areas were the most likely to swing away,” the researcher wrote.
“A working hypothesis to explain this could be that these were the voters the party has let down the most – paying the price of everyday governance but also of not having delivered independence,” she added.
You can find the research on the Scottish Election Study’s website.
