The Liberal party’s decision to preference One Nation above Labor at last Saturday’s South Australian election will hand seats to the rightwing, populist party, analysts say.
Labor won the election with a thumping majority, while the Liberal party finished behind Pauline Hanson’s party on primary votes.
One Nation will have at least two seats in the upper house, led by former federal senator Cory Bernardi. In the lower house, only one seat has been declared for One Nation but it is likely to win more with the vote still being counted.
The party declared on Tuesday it “is now the real opposition in SA” despite the fact it will be outnumbered by the Liberal party.
“Seats that One Nation are going to win will be won on Liberal party preferences,” said Clem McIntyre, an emeritus professor of politics at the University of Adelaide.
“In each case it’s going to be Labor or Liberal coming third and if the Liberals fall below Labor, they’ll get eliminated and the preferences will go to One Nation.
“They’ve now provided a means by which One Nation are going to have seats in the parliament and get the credibility and attention that a formal party in the House of Assembly will get.
“It’s going to mean One Nation wins seats they wouldn’t otherwise have won.”
Ben Raue, an electoral analyst, said a couple of seats were likely to be won by One Nation thanks to Liberal preferences, and that if Labor’s primary vote had been five points lower, they could have won more.
Sign up for the Breaking News Australia emailLiberal party elder and former prime minister John Howard famously took a stand against One Nation and demanded they be placed last on how-to-vote cards. However, in 2017 he gave his blessings to the Western Australian branch of the party’s decision to cut a deal with them.
In 2025, then leader Peter Dutton made a deal with One Nation to put them second.
Neither of those campaigns ended in victory.
“The obvious thing to say is that this is a very different strategy from the John Howard era, where both major parties acted almost like a cartel against the radical populist party,” said Dr Rob Manwaring, a political scientist at Flinders University.
“I presume they’re making assumptions that preferencing One Nation would help them and it hasn’t turned out like that.”
He also said that in a sense the Liberals should be grateful for Labor preferences for helping them pick up the handful they’ve got.
One Nation did not reciprocate by preferencing the Liberals.
The South Australian Liberal leader Ashton Hurn said her party’s decision to put One Nation ahead of Labor was “a vote of no confidence in the government” but was “far from” a vote of confidence in One Nation.
“But you’ve got to put people somewhere on the ballot,” she said.
On Tuesday, the former Liberal premier of Victoria Jeff Kennett urged the Coalition and One Nation to preference each other. Victoria’s election is in November.
Asked on Tuesday if the party would review the decision to preference One Nation, Hurn told ABC Adelaide they would review everything including preferences.
“There are a number of seats that will come down to the wire because it’s a genuine three-party contest,” she said.
“There are a number of independents as well that make it complex, but look, I’ll just let the results all wash through.
“They’re going up and down, so there’s no point providing a running commentary on those results.”
Votes are still being decided and preference flows calculated, but Labor and premier Peter Malinauskas’s victory was declared early on election night. On Tuesday afternoon, Labor’s primary vote was 31.8%, One Nation’s was 22.4%, and the Liberal party was 19.2%. The electoral commission of SA had not declared any seats for One Nation, 27 for Labor, seven for the Liberal party, and one for an independent but was adjusting.
The ABC reported 32 seats for Labor, four for the Liberals, two independents, and Ngadjuri for One Nation. It had One Nation “likely” in Hammond, and “ahead” in Narungga and MacKillop.
Raue said Liberal preferences would have helped One Nation win Ngadjuri, and could help in Hammond and Mackillop.
“The other dynamic is that Labor won in a landslide. If Labor’s vote was five points lower, One Nation could be competitive in some of those fringe seats,” he said.
“If Labor was weaker, the Liberals would have helped them in a bunch more seats.
“Does it matter that the Liberals preferenced One Nation? Absolutely.”
