A state Liberal MP surrounded by federal teals on Sydney’s north shore says she’s up for a serious fight as new NSW election polling reveals independents are looking even stronger than they did at at the equivalent point in the federal election campaign.
North Shore MP Felicity Wilson says the party is not taking anything for granted as it prepares for the March election.
“I don’t think, from my history of involvement with the Liberal Party, that we’ve ever treated this area — the North Shore and the Northern Beaches — as safe,” Wilson told Crikey.
Just a few years ago, all MPs who represented that area, both federal and state, were Liberals.
Today Wilson’s state electorate overlaps with two federal teal electorates: North Sydney, represented by Kylea Tink, who pushed Liberal Trent Zimmerman out of his seat at the last election, and Warringah, where Zali Steggall defeated Tony Abbott in 2019.
Mackellar, further north, also fell to a teal candidate, Dr Sophie Scamps, and Bennelong to the west flipped to Labor.
“I think that this notion of something being a safe seat, that can be handed between individuals, I don’t know that that was ever the case in my community,” Wilson said.
“I think it’s increasingly not becoming the case in other communities as well. People want to be represented and you’ve got to earn that.”
Her comments come as polling commissioned by teal backers Climate 200 revealed there were a number of seats in Sydney’s north where Liberals could lose against independents if suitable candidates decided to run.
In Wilson’s electorate, 34% of voters told polling firm Redbridge they would vote for “an independent like Kylea Tink”, while 35% said they’d vote for the Liberal Party, and 20% for Labor.
That would make the North Shore a serious target for a possible teal challenger.
Sizable chunks of voters in Manly, Lane Cove, Pittwater and Wakehurst indicated they were considering voting teal as well. All of those seats are represented by cabinet ministers, although those in Pittwater and Wakehurst will bow out at the March election.
“What this says to me is that across the north of Sydney, independent campaigns are highly competitive, and at this stage of electoral cycle, they’re ahead in some instances compared to where the federal teals were at the same point,” RedBridge research and policy director Simon Welsh said.
Two Liberal sources dismissed the poll when contacted by Crikey and said the teal threat was overblown.
Those two Liberals both believed the party will have a greater challenge holding on to seats in Sydney’s west, such as Penrith, than the ones in the city’s north.
Despite the apparent momentum, a North Sydney community teal group seeking to repeat the federal feat at a state level has struggled to find candidates.
A representative for community campaign North Sydney’s Independent said organisers were speaking to several people, but haven’t found a candidate yet.
“It’s taking a little longer than we would have liked, but it just shows what a significant thing we’re asking people to do,” co-director Denise Shrivell said.
Crikey can reveal Mosman mayor Carolyn Corrigan, who ran against Wilson as an independent in 2017 and 2019 and lost both times, has been approached but declined.
“I was approached, but I’m definitely not running,” Corrigan said. “I wish them well and hope they find the right candidate.”
North Sydney’s Independent is looking for a candidate to run in nearby Lane Cove as well, which has been in Liberal hands since 1947 and is represented by Planning Minister Anthony Roberts.
The group is also eyeing former premier Gladys Berejiklian’s former seat of Willoughby, where an independent lost a byelection against a Liberal earlier this year.
That independent, Larissa Penn, hasn’t said if she’ll run again next year, but a Facebook page for her byelection campaign is being regularly updated with posts on local issues. Penn did not respond to a request for comment.
Other local groups are searching for candidates in Pittwater and Wakehurst.
A state teal candidate has been announced for the seat of Vaucluse, which sits inside the federal electorate of Wentworth. That’s another wealthy Sydney electorate where a teal independent — Allegra Spender — knocked off the former Liberal MP at the last federal election.
Independent challenger Karen Freyer will face off against the Liberals’ newly announced local candidate, Kellie Sloane, at the March election.
Meanwhile, in Victoria, where a state election looms on November 26, Climate 200 has directed supporters to donate to candidates in Hawthorn, Kew, Caulfield and Mornington, ABC News reported last month. Federal teals succeeded in taking the seats of Kooyong and Goldstein from the Liberals at the May election.
The Australian reported on Wednesday that some Victorian Labor figures have been eyeing a deal with the Liberal Party to preference against teals in Kew and Hawthorn, while others have demurred because Labor might need to negotiate with possible independents if it retains government but slides into minority.
Kew and Hawthorn overlap with the federal seat of Kooyong, while Caulfield overlaps with Goldstein.
Will the teals be as successful in the NSW election as they were federally? Let us know by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.
