A frantic tactical voting effort is being waged this weekend by the Lib Dems, with party officials believing that an online targeting drive could unlock up to 25 seats in the final days of campaigning.
The number of seats being targeted by Ed Davey’s party has expanded over the campaign, as a combination of the Tories losing ground to Reform UK and a stunt-filled Lib Dem campaign have opened up more constituencies. Some of the most optimistic polls even have the Lib Dems becoming the official opposition, should a Tory meltdown materialise – an issue that some senior Conservatives complain has not been scrutinised enough.
However, the Lib Dems are spending the final days of the campaign targeting about 250,000 mainly Labour-inclined voters who they believe are key in a swathe of seats across the south of England. Theresa May’s former seat of Maidenhead is among them, along with the likes of Didcot and Wantage, Mid Sussex, Eastleigh, Bicester and Woodstock, Frome and East Somerset and Torbay.
Senior Lib Dem figures have been surprised by the lack of attention the Tories have paid to Davey’s party, given they believe that some polls have them winning over 50 seats on a good night. “They are fighting on three fronts – Reform UK, Labour and us,” said one party source. “They don’t have the bandwidth to do everything.”
They are expecting a Tory ad spending blitz in the 48 hours before polling day. Meanwhile, senior Conservatives are warning wavering voters that a vote for the Lib Dems will effectively hand Labour an even larger majority – an outcome that the Tory HQ believe is daunting for many swing voters.
Speaking to the Observer, Andrew Mitchell, the deputy foreign secretary, said he understood there was a band of “liberal Conservatives who could be tempted”. But he said he believed they would understand that “voting Lib Dem just increases the chances of a Labour supermajority with unchecked power for a Labour government, which as night follows day will put up tax”.
“You may remember the great slogan that John Major had, which is just as true today, 25 years later, as it was as it was then,” he said. “Dogs bark, cats meow and Labour puts up taxes.”
In a campaign that could see more tactical votes than ever before, claims of dirty tricks and misinformation about which parties have a chance locally have been emerging across the country. Some Tory leaflets have circulated in Lib Dem target seats claiming Labour is the real challenger – a move aimed at suppressing the Lib Dem turnout and split the anti-Tory vote.
In Harpenden and Berkhamsted, a top Lib Dem target, a Tory leaflet states that “Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck”. In Cheadle, another projected to fall into Lib Dem hands, a leaflet states the Lib Dems “can’t win”. Daisy Cooper, the Liberal Democrat deputy leader, accused the Conservatives of “trying to confuse voters by falsely claiming Labour are second placed in many blue wall seats. It is a cynical ploy to split the anti-Conservative vote.”
Labour is braced for a strong challenge from some independent candidates in a cluster of seats, largely driven by anger over Keir Starmer’s early stance on the Gaza war and initial refusal to back a ceasefire. Jess Phillips and Shabana Mahmood, who hold Birmingham seats, are among those who could be at risk of losing safe seats.
Shadow cabinet member Thangam Debbonaire, who is standing in the new seat of Bristol Central, is also projected to face defeat at the hands of the Greens.
