Suella Braverman’s recent spate of controversial statements has been dismaying significant numbers of Conservative voters in “blue wall” seats, the Liberal Democrats have said, with one candidate calling her “one of our best recruiting tools”.
In particular, Lib Dem campaigners said, Braverman’s description of homelessness as a “lifestyle choice” went down extremely badly with more centrist Conservative voters, many of whom raised it during doorstep chats.
While the Lib Dems have been steadfastly refusing to say publicly how many seats they believe they could take from the Conservatives in the next election, the dismay felt by many traditional Tory supporters in the blue wall – a loose term mainly covering commuter belt areas near London – has prompted speculation it could be well above 30.
This effect, which Lib Dem campaigners said began under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss and which Braverman has again been fuelling, could play a significant role in condemning the government to a heavy election loss – something Tory MPs in relevant seats are very aware of.
Danny Chambers, who will fight for the Conservative ultra-marginal seat of Winchester, said sentiments about Braverman were so intense that some voters whose homes were near what will be her new seat under boundary changes were delighted to learn she will not be their MP.
Chambers said a recent canvassing trip to a village on the edge of the two constituencies left him thinking Braverman was “one of our best recruiting tools”.
“Door after door there were people who thought they were going to have Braverman as their next MP and they were just over the moon to hear they weren’t,” he said. “One guy even shouted up to his wife to come down to talk to us, for me to tell her again.
“These are proper Tory villages, and they’re really pleased to see us. It’s mainly because of Braverman. They just find her completely distasteful.”
“It’s weaponising homeless people or asylum seekers as part of a culture war. That’s the common thread here for what people don’t like – the tone, the aggression, that nastiness.”
Braverman’s tough line on areas such as migration did not seem to be stemming the movement of voters from the right of the Conservatives to Reform UK either, he said: “Even with some of the people that support her position on Rwanda they don’t have the faith that she’s going to tackle it. They’re not even shoring up their vote among people who agree with them.”
Lib Dem officials, who have been rigidly prioritising target seats in a highly disciplined campaign, say Braverman and Lee Anderson, the Tories’ combative deputy chair, are the two names which are mentioned most in blue wall seats.
Lib Dem research into swing voters in blue wall seats showed they tend to be regular donors to charities, with homelessness organisations among the most common beneficiaries, in part explaining the negative response to Braverman’s comments.
Max Wilkinson, who will try to overturn the 981 majority of Alex Chalk, the justice secretary, in Cheltenham at the next election, said the “unpleasantness and unkindness” shown by Braverman was having an impact.
“There was one man who told me he voted leave and he had voted Conservative his whole life, but that he would now vote for whoever could get rid of them,” Wilkinson said.
“He segued straight into saying how unimpressed he was by Suella Braverman, particularly on homelessness, but also about the marches.”
Chalk is from the liberal edge of the Conservatives, and clearly not a fan of his colleague in the Home Office. Even this, Wilkinson said, was not necessarily in his favour.
“Chalk obviously he feels very awkward about it, and I’m sure he would not agree with the sort of rhetoric that’s being used,” he said. “But I think people are a bit disappointed that he’s not more open in condemning it.”
