It is the worst of times and the best of times for Donald Trump. On Tuesday, he suffered another legal defeat. A federal jury found him liable for the sexual abuse, forcible touching, and defamation of E Jean Carroll. She was awarded $5m in damages.
The 45th president, however, escaped liability for rape. He also leads Joe Biden in their latest hypothetical match-up, while Ron DeSantis fades in the rearview mirror.
The midterms in November 2022 ended with an underwhelming GOP performance, DeSantis emerging triumphant in his reelection bid, and Trump licking his wounds. Not any more. He’s back.
The public judges Biden to be less than sharp, and his stewardship of the economy similarly lacking. Record low unemployment has failed to dissipate the stings of inflation, high interest rates and an underperforming stock market. Retirement accounts have taken a hit. Food prices are high. Folks are angry.
Meanwhile, Hunter Biden, the first son, faces the prospect of indictment on tax and gun charges. Biden professes that the boy has done nothing wrong, but even if he escapes prosecution, the sins of the son will likely be visited upon the father. It feels incestuous.
Given this tableau, the impact of the Trump sexual assault outcome is likely to be muted, which is not to say that this latest loss won’t bring fallout.
In the run-up to the verdict, the court released a deposition video that showed Trump unable to identify Carroll in a photograph. Instead, he confused her with Marla Maples, his second wife. In that moment, he put the lie to his non-denial-denial that Carroll wasn’t his “type”.
The potential for fall debate drama over Trump’s brain fog is high. Remember when he bragged about his performance in a cognitive test (“Person, woman, man, camera, TV”)? His mental acuity, too, is now likely to become a campaign issue. Turnabout is fair play. Biden isn’t the only one with issues.
Still, Trump has already survived the infamous Access Hollywood tape. “When you are a star, they let you do it … You can do anything,” he cackled back in the day.
“I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK,” Trump mused seven years ago. He was definitely on to something.
For many Republicans, Trump is their Caesar, a cultural avatar and warrior who possesses license to flout and defy convention. Conversely, the GOP primary field is too timid to comment, let alone criticize or condemn Trump.
For rivals purportedly wedded to law and order, their silence is both deafening and unsurprising. Apparently, the wrath of Trump loyalists far exceeds any possible political benefit.
Mike Pence still won’t go full bore at his ex-boss over the events of January 6. The former vice-president tiptoes around the topic. The fact that Trump was unperturbed by the mob’s calls for Pence to be hanged apparently warrants no further discussion.
Then there’s DeSantis. Bashing Disney is one thing; trashing Trump is another. Glaringly, he failed to use the Carroll trial to further his own ambitions: he didn’t dispatch his wife, Casey DeSantis, there to offer thoughts and prayers for the plaintiff or Melania Trump.
The cameras would have been rolling and DeSantis would have been credited for surgically wielding a scalpel instead of crudely brandishing his usual axe. Instead, DeSantis went overseas in a vain bid to grow foreign policy credentials.
In London, he fell on his face as he attempted to woo the titans of British industry. “Ron DeTedious: DeSantis underwhelms Britain’s business chiefs”, the headline at Politico blared. “UK captains of industry lambast ‘low-wattage’ US presidential hopeful.”
Low wattage is the new low energy. Once upon a time, Jeb Bush was Florida’s governor. The song remains the same.
DeSantis also met Israel’s beleaguered Benjamin Netanyahu – who failed to release a photo of their meeting. At this juncture, DeSantis’s anticipated announcement feels stale and overdue.
His purported legislative accomplishments have earned him the title of “2024’s Ted Cruz”; the most rightwing GOP contender, little else. He makes Wall Street’s Republicans uncomfortable. Once again, the non-Trump challenger is a mirage.
Looking ahead Trump’s future is muddled. He remains under criminal indictment. Grand juries in DC and Georgia proceed apace. Separately, an October trial date is set in the $250m civil fraud action commenced by New York state against him, his three older children and the Trump Organization.
It’s too soon for Trump to gloat, but he can definitely smile.
Lloyd Green is an attorney in New York and served in the US Department of Justice from 1990 to 1992
