Election results in the three Hindi heartland States of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are being widely celebrated in ruling circles as a resounding semi-final victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Prime Minister Narendra Modi termed it a “hat trick” and claimed it to be the harbinger of another “hat trick in 2024”.
While the BJP’s win in these three States is quite significant, historical evidence that the party which wins these three States goes on to win the Lok Sabha election is mixed. The BJP won the 2014 Lok Sabha election after its victory in the 2013 Assembly elections in these States, but it lost to the Congress in these States in 2018, yet won the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Two decades ago, Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee had launched the “India Shining” campaign after similar victories in the Assembly elections in 2003, only to lose the Lok Sabha elections in 2004.
So, there is certainly no “guarantee” of a BJP win here. Much will depend on how the Congress and other Opposition parties analyse the results and the lessons they draw from the defeat to strategise for 2024.
