If nothing else, Leo Molloy brought attention and colour to the Auckland mayoral race. His exit makes for a decidedly duller contest writes Mark Jennings
Leo Molloy talks a lot about his charisma. His frequent claim is that he has it and the others contesting the Auckland mayoralty don’t. If charisma is defined by confidence, then Molloy’s self-assessment is plausible. If it is defined by attractiveness and charm, then it is debatable.
Charismatic politicians often believe they can handle the media better than their rivals. They count on their communication skills to be persuasive and their sense of humour to get them out of sticky situations. They enjoy interacting with reporters and reporters, in the main, like the colour they provide in the often-dreary political landscape.
At his final media conference Molloy sought to reinforce his own perception that he has a talent for dealing with the cut and thrust of daily media coverage.
“I love the media. I’m great for sound bites,” he told the five reporters who had turned up to hear his final hurrah.
When Newsroom put it to Molloy that he appeared sad and flat after pulling the pin on his mayoral bid he rejected the notion. But off to the side, Molloy’s campaign manager, Matt McCarten, quietly agreed that the usually rambunctious restauranter was deflated.
Molloy, had come to the realisation that his form of charisma wasn’t going to win him the mayoralty, conceding that he was a bit “obnoxious and edgy.”
“My problem is that you guys can listen to me for 45 minutes and it ends up as one paragraph.”
Molloy had positioned himself as the anti-politician or non-politician in the race. In a recent interview with Newsroom McCarten mused that Molloy’s lack of political skills had been an issue in that his messaging wasn’t consistent enough.
And, as if to prove a point, Molloy did something most politicians when they are under pressure never do. He believed that the latest poll, which put him in third place behind Efeso Collins and Wayne Brown, was accurate.
One of his rivals, Viv Beck, a much meeker campaigner than Molloy, immediately dismissed the significance of the poll.
She told the NZ Herald, “The polls are bouncing around and cannot be taken too seriously.”
Molloy dropped 8 percentage points from the previous month's poll to be trailing Collins by 7 points and Brown by 4,
“I was mortified, I didn’t see that coming,” said Molloy.
The Ratepayers’ Alliance- Curia poll had a sample of 500 but only 275 said who they would vote for. A high 45 percent were undecided.
Still, it was discouraging enough for Molloy to decide to quit, saying it would have been unethical for him to continue splitting the centre right vote.
“It's the right thing to do for the city. While some aspects of my polling are still strong, there are clear trends emerging that suggest I cannot win – this time.”
When Newsroom suggested to Molloy that it looked premature to pull the pin on the basis of this poll he reasoned that the polling company was credible and the sample size was big enough to be reliable.
Another of his rivals wasn’t buying it. Craig Lord, who the same poll had in fifth place, tweeted:
“There’s no way a poll of 275 people was the decision maker. There is no hero syndrome going on, something else is at foot. And Molloy’s support base should be furious about it.”
Two things are likely to have loomed large in Molloy’s decision to call time. One lay behind his slide in the polls – the other would have followed as a consequence.
Molloy has been reluctant to admit it but the fallout from the Guy Williams interview was clearly reflected in his slumping numbers. A chunk of his supporters found the crude nature of Molloy’s responses to Williams a joke too far. Suddenly, the idea that he could be an embarrassment as mayor took hold in quarters that might have previously given him some benefit of the doubt.
Molloy, who has indicated he could stand again next round, gave a small concession to the impact of the interview when he volunteered “if it came up again in 2025, I wouldn’t do it.”
The lower poll numbers would’ve also made it a lot harder for Molloy to attract donations and sponsorship. Nobody wants to put their money on a loser. Molloy has sunk a considerable amount of his own cash into campaign salaries, advertising and social media. The idea of pumping in more can’t have been very appealing.
“Cold hard cash is always a factor,” Molloy told reporters. When asked how much he put in he replied, “it’s cost me a lot.”
The question now is where Molloy’s supporters will head. At his media conference Molloy steered away from endorsing any of his rivals, although he mentioned Brown’s name more times than any of others.
“Is any of them the full package? Probably not…If you want someone to cut the fat [council spending] then you’d look at Wayne Brown. I would have thought Viv [Beck] would’ve waved the white flag before now but she didn’t. Efeso has been on the umbilical cord for his whole career.”
Yesterday, two days after his withdrawal from the race, Molloy indicated to the Herald that he was planning to have informal talks with Viv Beck’s team.
Beck, who has endorsement of the National Party-aligned C & R group, might have timed her run well. Molloy’s withdrawal effectively renders last week’s poll, which had Beck in fourth place at 13 percent, redundant.
Beck has spent nothing on advertising and little on social media but says she is about to ramp things up. Molloy could help Beck if he endorses her and perhaps pushes her to be a bit more aggressive and ‘charismatic’. Molloy’s supporters will want to know that Beck is capable of “shaking things up” at the council or they will look to Wayne Brown.
With Molloy gone, the race suddenly has a more mundane look to it. The former jockey, stable hand for the Queen’s trainer, veterinarian, suppression breaker and bar owner has put local body politics in front of Aucklanders who might not otherwise have looked up from their drinks.
He says he will be back in 2025 to give it another shot.
“I won’t make the same mistakes again….this has been a valuable learning exercise. I will talk in a softer, more approachable way….I need to go more for the fireside chat.”
Believe that if you want to.
