On June 25, Fundstrat's Tom Lee raised his S&P 500 ($SPX) target to 8,000 and put it on the calendar for year-end. On July 13, CNBC titled a segment with him "S&P 500 to hit 8000 by year end: Tom Lee." On Aug. 6, the same forecaster and the same number appeared on CNBC again, this time with a deadline of the end of August. The target did not move. The timeline compressed by roughly four months in six weeks, and that compression is a much bigger claim than the number itself.
Start with what the August version actually requires. The S&P 500 closed at 7,709.96 on Aug. 6, the day of the call. Reaching 8,000 from there is a gain of 3.76%. There are no market holidays left in August, which leaves 17 trading sessions from Aug. 7 through Aug. 31. Compounded across a full year, that pace works out to something in the neighborhood of 55%, against a long-run average annual return for the index of roughly 10%. In the four days since then, the index is currently sitting around 7750, making respectable gains towards the prediction.
