The odds of an immediate return to the Premier League would not be in the Whites’ favour if they were to drop down to the Championship – but bouncing straight back up is still the best chance they would have of getting back to the top flight anytime soon.
Only 17 of the 60 (28%) clubs relegated over the past 20 years have been able to secure promotion again at the first time of asking, but that’s still more than the number of sides who come back within 2-4 years of relegation combined.
That means that over half of the teams that drop back into the second tier spend at least five seasons at that level (or even drop again), with 52% of the sides who were relegated between 2005 and 2019 failing to get back into the Premier League within four years.
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The overall lesson is that history says you only have about a one in four chance of bouncing straight back from a Premier League relegation, but if you miss that chance you’re more likely than not to be set for an extended spell away from the big boys - twice as likely, in fact. Only a third of those who don't bounce straight back go on to do so in years two, three or four.
But there is a potential silver lining for Leeds United in that more recent years have seen newly-relegated clubs start to fare much better after suffering the drop, perhaps bolstered by the huge increase in TV revenues that took effect in 2019/20.
The nine sides who have been relegated since then can’t be counted in the data above because they’ve not had enough time at Championship level to be included in a report on how they’ve done over five years.
But so far, four of the nine have been promoted straight back into the top flight (including this season’s runaway Championship winners, Burnley) and two got promoted back in their second Championship season – leaving only three who will still be in the Championship next year.
Sam Allardyce’s side will be hoping they don’t need to worry about any of that, of course, with the relegation fight going to the final day with United hoping to overtake Leicester City and Everton to secure safety.
Leeds are two points behind Everton, who are also three goals better off on goal difference; while Leicester are level on points with Leeds but with a superior goal difference.
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