Latinos did not abandon Democrats on election day, but the results show Republicans might enjoy a new, higher level of support among the fast-growing voting bloc.
Polls also reveal abortion and inflation took precedence in the minds of Hispanics when filling out their ballots. And while nothing is certain yet, there’s agreement that it’s time to retire the use of the “sleeping giant” cliche when describing Latino voters.
Here are some still early takeaways from Latino voting experts, polls and advocacy organizations about this year’s election.
A new Republican baseline for Latinos?
Both preliminary network exit polls and voter polls from AP VoteCast found that about 6 in 10 Latino voters supported Democratic candidates across the country. Republican support hovered around 38% to 40% among Latino voters.
That falls in line with 2020 election numbers and reflected greater GOP support compared to previous elections.
Latino support for Republicans has fluctuated. In 2018, a blue wave midterm election, about 70% of Hispanics supported Democratic candidates in the national exit poll. And in the 2014, the midterm election when Republicans flipped the Senate, the Democratic advantage was 62-36 among Latino voters.
Mike Madrid, Republican Latino voting trends expert, said Democrats are still winning over Latinos, but the margins are smaller. He also pointed to Republican Rep. Mike Garcia’s current lead over Democratic opponent Christy Smith for a Southern California seat as a signal of support for Republican candidates in the Latino community.
“It’s clear that the new baseline for Republicans support is 40%. ...The most curious thing is that in a year that was anemic for Republicans, the support levels of the GOP with Hispanics held firm,” Madrid said.
Mindy Romero, director of USC’s Center for Inclusive Democracy, said exit polls are never perfect, with further analysis needed to understand how the Latino electorate voted. But she recognized the polls “appear to be in the direction of a shift toward Republicans.”
Romero was optimistic about Latinos receiving more outreach and not being taken for granted if they are not tied to one party.
“To not be considered in play has meant Republicans were not outreaching to them (Latinos) very much. … Hopefully this means Latinos will be taken more seriously as an electorate that can flex and is up for grabs,” Romero said.
Inflation takes priority
Inflation was overwhelming on the minds of Latino voters in the midterm election, according to a poll conducted by African American Research Collaborative.
The poll was taken in the week leading up to the election and consists of 12,200 voters across 11 states, who had already voted or were “definitely voting.” Hispanics made up 5,000 of the voters.
Nationwide, 48% of Latinos said rising cost of living was the most important issue they wanted the president and Congress to address. In California, it increased to 49% of Latinos.
Stopping the red wave
Abortion rights and the cost of gas were the next two most important issues for Hispanics, with both receiving 24% of the vote. The poll also found that 64% of Hispanics supported Democratic candidates for the Congress.
In a Wednesday morning briefing of several engagement and advocacy groups that collaborated on the poll, leaders emphasized that Latinos were key in avoiding the “red wave.”
Kenny Sandoval, vice president of campaigns and partnerships for Voto Latino, cited the Senate races in Pennsylvania and Georgia as examples of Latinos having a critical role.
Latino voters supported Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman by a 3 to 1 margin over Mehmet Oz, according to NBC exit polls. U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock got 58% of the Latino vote in Georgia.
“These results wouldn’t have been possible without Latinos, specifically Latinos aren’t just keeping Democrats in contention to these races, they may as well have kept control of the Senate,” Sandoval said. “All of this should put to rest that Latinos voters have magically turned into Republicans.”
Death of ‘sleeping giant’ narrative
There was at least one consensus among voting experts and advocacy groups following Tuesday’s midterm election: it’s time to kill the sleeping giant narrative.
Romero said the term has been used for years to “minimize,” and to provide less resources for the electorate. She cautioned people using the label as it leads to the idea that the Latino community can not “get it together.”
Madrid concurred and said 2022 is the last year that the label should be used.
“It’s not if it’s coming or when it comes, it’s now a regular parcel of the mass of modern American campaigns and U.S. You can’t ignore the vote anymore. It’s here, arrived and going forward. I think campaigns on both sides of the aisle will be forever changed,” said Madrid.
Sandoval and other groups emphasized this point as well in Wednesday’s discussion. They urged both Democrats and Republicans to engage voters earlier in the election cycle and provide “sustained investment.”
“We have a high ceiling of people every day, a Latino youth turns 18,” Sandoval said. “So in 2024, it’s crucial that Latino participation gets treated with the importance it deserves.”
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