It sounds like good news. The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonprofit and nonpartisan advocacy group, has increased its long-term Social Security COLA forecast for 2025 to 2.6%. But that modest increase — up from 1.7% in a February 2024 forecast — may fall far off the mark for seniors trying to beat back inflation.
The new estimate is based on the March 2024 CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers), which was 3.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last year, the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) was 8.7%; this year, it’s 3.2%. As retirees struggle to keep up with inflation, this 2.6% forecast is seen as a setback.
