Newly-released data shows that, on average, house prices in Bristol fell by 0.2% between November and December 2022, the first decline in over a year. According to the latest figures from the Office of National Statistics, in the whole of the UK, there was a 0.4% drop in December 2022 compared to the previous month, while the south west was the region that saw the most significant monthly price fall, with a movement of –1.8%.
Despite the dip in Bristol, the yearly increase in the 12 months leading to December was 13.6%, with average house prices rising from £322,553 the previous year to £366,459. This compares nationally to an annual price rise of 9.8%, putting the average property in the UK valued at £294,329.
Read More: How expensive is it to rent in Bristol and will rents rise in 2023?
Graham Cox, founder of the Bristol-based broker, SelfEmployedMortgageHub.com, said: “Whilst the economic picture is looking slightly better, the housing market fundamentals haven't changed. Mortgage rates are likely to remain, at best, double what they were in late 2021, making affordability extremely difficult for many.
"About 1.2m mortgage holders will be remortgaging onto those much higher rates this year. Landlords are selling up in droves either because it's no longer profitable, or they can't refinance, or both. And we're heading into a recession. All these factors will put downward pressure on property prices.
"The good news for first-time buyers and those looking to buy a bigger home, is house prices are falling fast and are likely to continue falling well into next year. My best guess is a 15%-20% decrease in 2023 and a 25%-30% drop peak to trough.”
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