Alarmed iwi groups are to challenge ministers this weekend after learning of a surprise Government move to legislate the stalled 620,000 square kilometre marine park.
Ministers are understood to be in talks to pass the Kermadec ocean sanctuary into law in the dying days of this Parliament.
Environment Minister David Parker and his senior colleagues face enormous hurdles: the agreement of Labour's Māori ministers and caucus, the tight timeframe between now and the House adjourning on August 31 and, most of all, the discomfort of iwi groups the length of New Zealand.
Iwi groups have called a meeting, at short notice, to consider how they engage with the Government.
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Te Pāti Māori is aligning itself with iwi. "Parker wants to push on," says MP Meka Whaitiri, who quit Labour's caucus this year. "Iwi are not happy. It’s now on Willie and Kelvin... I can confirm Te Pāti Māori’s position will be the iwis' position."
Former PM John Key announced the ocean sanctuary in 2015, in a speech to the United Nations that caught many in Māoridom by surprise. They had been awarded ownership of the quota in the Kermadecs in the 1992 Sealord settlement, and were unhappy at the attempt to unilaterally seize it back.
"With less than half a percent of our marine environment protected, and no protected areas in our huge exclusive economic zone, protection at Rangitahua is long overdue." – Eugenie Sage, Green MP
In their 2017 confidence and supply agreement, Labour and the Greens agreed to progress the sanctuary – but that deal was gazumped by NZ First.
Green MP Eugenie Sage says the marine area is "an oasis in the ocean with an extraordinary diversity of marine life".
"It would be brilliant news if suggestions are accurate that a sizeable 620,000 sq km Rangitahua Kermadecs marine protected area is finally to be established," she says. "Rangitahua, the Kermadecs, is an extraordinary and internationally important marine area for biodiversity and its geology.
"With less than half a percent of our marine environment protected, and no protected areas in our huge exclusive economic zone, protection at Rangitahua is long overdue."
"Let me tell you, I will be absolutely committed to mobilising our people to come out in full force against it... They might find themselves on the receiving end of another mass protest." – Pahia Turia, Te Ohu Kaimoana
But others, like Ngāti Mutunga o Wharekauri asset holding company director Tom McClurg, point out that seas around the islands and out to the 12-mile limit are already protected by a marine park.
The main catch would be yellowfin and albacore tuna, but iwi haven't been fishing the quota – they say they're balancing development with conservation.
"There's quota there, but it's in such small volumes that it doesn't even support exploratory fishing," McClurg says. "The thing most people don't understand is that putting a sanctuary in place doesn't change anything at all. There's actually a high level of protection already there, which has been supported by Māori for 20 years."
The latest government proposal includes renaming the area to Ngā Whatu-a-Māui Ocean Sanctuary, and suggested a review into the sanctuary be conducted every 20 years.
Iwi have sought $3 million a year compensation to not fish their quota for those 20 years – about $60m in total. The Government has countered with $60,000 for research.
Everyone agrees, it's not about the money. Iwi say it's about the principle behind returning their fishing and kaitiakitanga rights under the Sealord deal.
And in June, at a meeting hosted by the Waitangi fisheries commission Te Ohu Kaimoana, iwi voted overwhelmingly to reject the proposal. Many are angry at the way their opposition has been characterised as capture by commercial fishing interests; they say it's about honouring the Treaty settlement.
The chair of Te Ohu Kaimoana is Pahia Turia. He's the son of Dame Tariana Turia, who quit the Helen Clark Labour Government over its appropriation of foreshore and seabed property rights. She formed the Māori Party and joined a big hikoi to Parliament.
"This has never ever been about the money," he says. "It's not about Māori not wanting to be good kaitiaki, as the Government would play it.
"Fundamentally, you can't have these binding settlements and then decide, when it suits you, that you're going to undermine those and do what you want to do."
"The reality is that there is already a marine protected area out to the 12-mile mark around the Kermadec Islands. And we don't go and fish up there. It's uneconomical for us to go up there and fish. But my role as Te Ohu Kaimoana chair is to protect the integrity of the fisheries settlement."
Eugenie Sage says the Green Party has long campaigned for greater conservation protection, while recognising Māori fishing rights.
But Turia disagrees: he says Labour and Greens haven't recognised those fishing rights at all. "Let's remove all the noise and go back to the fundamentals here. There was a settlement that was forged between tangata whenua of this country and the Crown. Now the Crown have decided that they want to change that agreement. They didn't have a conversation with us.
"Let me tell you, I will be absolutely committed to mobilising our people to come out in full force against it."
He warns that if the Labour Government tried to renege on the Sealord fisheries settlement, "they might find themselves on the receiving end of another mass protest".
"And like the foreshore and seabed, it's whether those Maori MPs want to get caught on the right or wrong side of the ledger.
"They're running a gamble, whether those Māori MPs are going to stay united alongside of what the people have said, or stand alongside of their party. And we know what happened last time they did that."
Māori caucus chair Willie Jackson refused to answer questions last night. "I can't say nothing. Nothing at all."
But he says he'll be happy to talk things through with Turia. "He can give me a call if he likes, no problem."
The minister is to launch his election campaign on Saturday morning at Nga Whare Waatea Marae in Mangere.
He confirms he and other ministers will then front up on Sunday to the annual commemorations of the coronation of the Māori King at Tūrangawaewae marae in Ngāruawahia – where they are expected to face robust questions.
