The Mariners have been a team predicated on a precise yet tenuous blueprint for success: A strong enough pitching staff, particularly the lockdown bullpen, to compensate for a middling offense.
To make this work requires an efficiency on defense and in the clutch that ensures a preponderance of close victories — a .620 winning percentage in one-run games and .676 in extra innings the past two years.
It's a dangerous way to live — some would say a recipe for regression to the mean. And the early part of this Seattle season has been very mean at times, with an outpouring of many flaws and inadequacies that were feared by some to be lurking beneath a shiny exterior.
Let's look briefly at the losses in a disappointing 5-8 start, in which the Mariners have lost four out of five one-run games and all three in extra innings:
March 31: Guardians 9, Mariners 4. Robbie Ray struggles, Mariners make three errors and give up five unearned runs.
April 1: Guardians 2, Mariners 0. Mariners are shut down by Cleveland starter Aaron Civale, get just three hits and waste strong Logan Gilbert start.
April 2: Guardians 6, Mariners 5 (10 innings). Cal's Raleigh's throwing error prolongs 10th inning and lets in winning run. Mariners get tying run to third with one out in bottom of 10th, can't score.
April 3: Angels 7, Mariners 3. George Kirby struggles, Shohei Ohtani hits two-run homer, and Mariners get just five hits.
April 5: Angels 4, Mariners 3. Mariners make two costly outs on the basepaths to thwart rallies.
April 9: Guardians 7, Mariners 6 (12 innings). With two outs in ninth and two-run Seattle lead, new right fielder Teoscar Hernandez can't catch a drive on the track, and two runs score. M's take lead in 11th and 12th but can't hold either of them. Wild pickoff attempt leads to Cleveland's winning run.
April 10: Cubs 3, Mariners 2 (10 innings). After Mariners can't score with men on second and third with no outs (and bases loaded with one out) in 10th, Cubs win thanks to a steal of third on what was to have been a pickoff attempt to second.
April 11: Cubs 14, Mariners 9: Mariners can't hold a 7-0 second-inning lead as Chris Flexen gets shelled.
The optimist will point out there's a lot of would-be wins contained therein that the Mariners will typically lock down; the fact that they let them get away was the aberration. The pessimist will point out that the bullpen's magic is bound to run out eventually; its remarkable run of pitching health already has, with early injuries to Ray and Andres Munoz.
Oh, and the frustrated Mariners fans will point out — scream, in fact — that the Mariners are already paying a price for not going more aggressively into the free-agent market to augment their offense.
Let's look at this a little more closely while we ponder the Mariners' age-old question: Why can't everyone hit more like Jarred Kelenic? Actually, Kelenic's emergence has been the best story of the season for the Mariners and bodes extremely well for their future if it proves to be sustainable.
But there are genuine areas of concern on offense. The designated hitters as a group are by far the worst in baseball with a .114 batting average, .188 on-base percentage and .205 slugging percentage (.393 OPS) through 13 games. The Mariners have yet to get an RBI from a DH. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto reiterated Thursday on Seattle Sports 710 that he's not overly concerned about the DH struggles. "We're doing it the way we wanted to do it. ... Over the long season we think it's going to solve itself, especially as we gain traction offensively as we have these last eight games," he said. "We will figure it out."
It's hard, though, to conclude anything other than the Mariners are one bat short, a conclusion that will change only if and when their struggling players start to hit.
New second baseman Kolten Wong is mired in a seasonlong slump with just four hits in 38 at-bats. Wong has a 10-year track record that says his bat will come around, but the wait is getting excruciating. Wong, AJ Pollock, Cooper Hummel, Tom Murphy, Sam Haggerty and Tommy La Stella are a combined 13 for 144 (.114), which goes a long way toward explaining the Mariners' struggles.
The bottom of the order, after Kelenic in the six-hole, has been brutal. Their No. 7 hitters have a .125/.192/.188 slash line, worst in the majors. Their No. 8 hitters are at 125/.157/.167, which ranks 29th out of 30 teams. No. 9 hitters (i.e., J.P. Crawford), are at .209/.320/.326. That's not much production after Kelenic, nor much traffic before Julio Rodriguez.
The fact that even with all that, the Mariners are still on pace to score 735 runs — 45 more than last year — is noteworthy and reflects the firepower at the top of the batting order. (And yes, it's admittedly a little early to play the "on pace" game. The Orioles' Ryan Mountcastle is on pace to drive in 243 runs. I'll go out on a limb and say he won't get there.)
For all of the Mariners' troubles in this early season, they are just 2 1/2 games off the division lead, if you're even following such things now. In other words, one stretch of seven wins in eight games from being just fine, and they are fully capable of doing that. The emergence of Kelenic is an exciting development for them that opens new dimensions to their offensive potential.
The eventual return of Dylan Moore will help as well, but although Moore is a useful player, he is also a .208 career hitter. You can't look for him to be a savior. The Mariners desperately need their batch of struggling hitters to find themselves, or else Dipoto will have to scour the trade market even before the Aug. 1 deadline.
It's way too early to panic over the Mariners' stumbling start. It's not too early to recognize it's not their birthright to win 90 games again. That cautionary tale is already being written out for them so far this season. But the formula to get back on track is right there in front of them.
