On June 27, 2022 — exactly one year ago Tuesday — the Mariners jumped the trade market by acquiring veteran first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana from the Royals for two minor-league pitchers.
Just about a month later, on July 30, the Mariners made their big move, getting All-Star pitcher Luis Castillo from the Reds for four highly touted minor-leaguers.
Those bookended transactions played vital roles in the Mariners’ surge to a wild-card playoff berth. Seven games under .500 at the time, the Mariners were 17-1 in Santana’s first 18 games, in which he showed the team how to dance after wins. Beginning with Castillo’s first Mariners start Aug. 3, a dominant outing in a victory over the Yankees, Seattle was 33-23 down the stretch to lock down the long-elusive postseason spot.
Now, it would be foolish to assign a direct cause-and-effect quotient to those facts. But the Mariners were happy to tell you that Santana’s veteran leadership was a vitally needed factor in their youth-oriented clubhouse (not to mention 15 home runs that punched up his .192 average with Seattle). And that the arrival of a legitimate No. 1-caliber pitcher such as Castillo provided a jolt.
The Mariners are now at the same juncture of the season in a similar predicament. Like last year, they are desperately trying to remain relevant in the playoff race despite a lackluster showing in the first half of the season. Like last year, they could use a jolt. Like last year, they have a need for additional veteran leadership. And like last year, they have glaringly evident holes that need to be plugged.
Which is why I have no doubt that, even as we speak, Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander are burning the phone and text lines to see what sort of deal they can scare up. As well they should, because despite all the doom and gloom clinging to this Mariners season, they are actually in a better spot, vis-à-vis a playoff berth, than they were last year at this time.
Indeed, the right player(s) at the right time could be a huge boost. Of course, there’s no guarantee they’ll find the right player, because the competition from now until this year’s Aug. 1 trade deadline to pick clean the handful of teams that fall into the “seller” category will be fierce. And also because it can be difficult to identify the “right” player; AJ Pollock, Kolten Wong and Tommy La Stella, among others, are proof of that.
As for the right time, the clock starts ticking … now. The Santana deal, prompted by an injury to Ty France, showed the efficacy of changing the chemistry midseason — a month before the deadline. When he walked into the clubhouse, the only American League teams with worse records than the Mariners’ were Detroit, Kansas City and Oakland — and that was after a recent five-game winning streak. The M’s were 7½ games out of the final wild-card spot, but with six teams to jump over it seemed more daunting than that.
As play began Tuesday, the Mariners were one game under .500, four games out of the final wild-card spot and needing to catapult past “just” four teams. Still daunting, but not overwhelmingly so. Despite all the frustrations, inadequacies and letdowns of the first 77 games, the Mariners are not buried.
Still, all fringy teams at this juncture — including the Mariners — need to do deep soul-searching and decide whether they’re chasing a realistic goal or a pipe dream. That should inform how aggressively they go into the trade market, and how much trade capital — i.e., prospects — they’re willing to give up.
The Mariners have the one commodity that should provide hope that they can emulate the 2019 Nationals (19-31 on May 23, won World Series), the 2021 Braves (54-55 on Aug. 4, won World Series) or the 2022 Phillies (49-46 on July 25, won NL pennant).
Of course, there are also untold number of teams who were mediocre in July and remained mediocre (or worse) in September. The Mariners certainly have that potential. But the commodity to which I refer, and have clung to before as a reason for not giving up on this team (despite its best effort to elicit that reaction), is its exceptionally strong pitching, which can carry it a long way when other teams succumb to pitching issues.
Their glaring weakness, the one that Dipoto and Hollander need to prioritize over the next month — having failed to adequately address it in the offseason — is an offense that ranks near the bottom of the majors in most categories. The Mariners might also be in the market for a starting pitcher, considering Marco Gonzales’ uncertain health status and the fact that impressive rookie Bryan Woo is going to reach an innings limit before the season is over.
It’s admittedly a complicated proposition. As I write this, 24 out of 30 teams are within 6½ games of a playoff berth — close enough to think twice about bailing on the season. There will thus be a feeding frenzy for the precious few impact players on the market. The Mariners’ farm system has already been dented by the haul they gave up for Castillo and others deals. Two of the players, Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo, are rated Nos. 18 and 27 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects list — higher than the highest-rated Mariner, Harry Ford at No. 28.
It would take a player with club control beyond this one to warrant giving up Ford, Woo, Cole Young, Emerson Hancock or any of the other young players likely to be sought in a deadline deal. That’s when that soul-searching moment has to take place, because there are going to be teams in full “win now” mode that you’ll have to compete with for talent. Is it worth it?
If the Mariners go into a nosedive in the near future, of course, all bets are off and the narrative changes. Then they would no doubt look to deal someone such as Teoscar Hernandez, a free agent after the season. But the Mariners are stubbornly lurking on the fringes of playoff contention, no matter how much cursing is aimed at them.
You could argue that it’s a mirage, that it’s a flimsy hope is built on the backs of the league’s worst teams — an 11-0 record (entering Tuesday) against Oakland, Colorado and Washington, who are a combined 76 games under .500, and 27-39 against everyone else. And the schedule only gets tougher.
But you could also argue that Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez and Cal Raleigh are due for a surge, that the pitching will sustain the Mariners in the meantime and beyond, and that some new blood in the batting order could be the instigating factor they need.
Those are the massive — and complex — decisions facing the Mariners — starting right now. And I suspect it leads them to a similar conclusion as last year.
