Israel’s former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made a comeback following his Likud party’s strong showing in Tuesday’s elections. But the party of leftist caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid has also made electoral gains, enabling the journalist-turned-politician to establish himself as a powerful opposition leader, according to a Middle East expert.
Veteran Israeli hawk Benjamin Netanyahu has made yet another comeback following his strong showing in Tuesday’s general election, the country’s fifth in four years.
As the final ballot counts rolled in on Thursday, caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid conceded the election, congratulating Netanyahu and instructing his staff to prepare for an orderly transfer of power.
“The state of Israel comes before any political consideration," Lapid said. "I wish Netanyahu success, for the sake of the people of Israel and the state of Israel.”
The surging power of Israel's right wing came at the expense of its left flank. As vote counting neared an end, the anti-occupation Meretz appeared headed for political exile for the first time since it was founded in the 1990s.
Meretz's leader, Zehava Galon, released a video late Thursday conceding the party would not be in the next parliament. “This is a disaster for Meretz, a disaster for the country and yes, a disaster for me," she said.
The electoral configuration following Tuesday's vote places Lapid in a "paradoxical" situation with the caretaker prime minister being defeated despite electoral gains, according to David Khalfa, an analyst at the Paris-based Jean-Jaurès Foundation.
FRANCE 24: To what extent is this election a failure for caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid?
David Khalfa: It’s a relative failure for Yair Lapid. His party, Yesh Atid, which had 17 seats in 2021, will have 24 [parliamentary] seats after these legislative elections. This is a clear electoral gain.
But Yair Lapid's problem has been twofold: he has been at the head of a very heterogeneous coalition plagued by ego squabbles – especially with his defence minister, Benny Gantz. He has also made a tactical error: in the run-up to the elections, the caretaker prime minister tried to unite the Israeli left under a single political roof. But the Ha’avoda labour party refused this pre-election alliance, which explains why the left-wing Meretz party has not crossed the eligibility threshold.
Yair Lapid's goal was to beat Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud to the punch and become the leading political force in the country. However, he is in second place, and Yesh Atid's progress has been at the expense of its left-wing allies. Yair Lapid is therefore in a paradoxical situation: on the ballot, he is defeated electorally even though he obtained a substantial score, and at the same time, he now appears to be leading the Israeli opposition.
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The coalition in power before these elections was very diverse. How much responsibility does each political force within the broad ruling coalition bear for this failure?
It did not help Yair Lapid that the opposition went to the polls in disarray… We know that the turnout among Arab Israelis was much lower than among Jewish voters. Turnout played a decisive role in the outcome of these elections, a key role that should have allowed the ruling coalition to retain power under Lapid’s leadership. But Arab voters were relatively uninspired. There was a sort of apathy that was denounced on Wednesday, by the head of the Raam party, Mansour Abbas.
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Some Arab parliamentarians also bear responsibility, with statements that have done a disservice to the political discourse, and that has actually fed the anti-Arab rhetoric of Israeli extreme right populists.
In addition, there’s the obvious responsibility of some parliamentarians of the anti-Netanyahu right, who were responsible for the collapse of the outgoing coalition. Most of the voters of [Lapid’s predecessor and former settler leader] Naftali Bennett's Yamina party, for example, supported Likud and the extreme right in these elections. This electorate did not forgive Bennett for his alliance with the left and Arab parties.
Finally, the fact that Benny Gantz presented his own candidacy for prime minister and did not form a ticket with Yair Lapid has weakened the Israeli opposition.
What are the political prospects for Yair Lapid now?
Paradoxically, Yair Lapid has a sizeable political path ahead of him. As much as there is a swing to the right of the Israeli political spectrum, with a rusty Benjamin Netanyahu playing eternal returnee, Lapid is also facing a man accused of corruption and allied with a very cumbersome extreme right.
Yair Lapid campaigned on promoting an open society, defending the rule of law, preserving the separation of powers, and promoting cooperation with Arab citizens. Today, he is the embodiment of this democratic, progressive liberalism in Israel. He is the undisputed opposition leader, and he will pound the emerging right-wing coalition by focusing on Netanyahu’s far-right alliance. He will probably succeed in mobilising the Israeli opposition.
The structural problem for Yair Lapid will be the question of alliances. There has to be a real revolution in relations between Jews and Arabs in Israel. Both sides will have to assume a position of unhindered, lasting cooperation. There is no other political future for the Israeli opposition if it wants to return to power.
This interview is a translation of the original in French.
