If projections can be relied on, Labour has good reason to feel confident of supplanting the Conservatives as biggest party at the next general election. Yet it remains far from clear that Keir Starmer is heading for a House of Commons majority.
A Tory-to-Labour swing of 4.5% in 2023’s local elections fell marginally short of the 5% switch-around he needs to enter single-party government at Westminster.
Labour made gains in this year’s red wall salvage operation, which included the successful recapture of councils in Stoke-on-Trent and Blackpool. But it still stuttered in post-industrial areas where it might have been expected to capitalise on broken Tory promises about levelling up.
