A series of senior shadow cabinet ministers are being dispatched to Selby from this weekend as Labour makes a last-ditch push to secure what would be a historic byelection win for the party.
Wes Streeting, Yvette Cooper and Lisa Nandy, among Labour’s most recognisable names, are all scheduled to visit the North Yorkshire seat in the next 48 hours as the party seeks an unlikely win. Securing the seat after Thursday’s vote would set a new record for Labour overturning a Tory majority, which stood at more than 20,000 at the last general election.
While it could be a moment to make history for Keir Starmer, the coming week will be a more critical point for Rishi Sunak. The prime minister not only faces three byelections, all of which could be lost. He also awaits Wednesday’s publication of new inflation figures that have become all important for his premiership. He has placed reducing inflation above all other priorities and pledged to halve it by the end of the year.
Three byelection losses would also risk prompting more Tories to declare that they will step down at the next election. More than 40 MPs have already done so. Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, is the latest to announce he is standing down.
Labour has poured resources into the Selby and Ainsty seat, left vacant by the resignation of Boris Johnson ally Nigel Adams. Meanwhile, there has been frustration among local Tory activists, who have complained of an absence of party big hitters.
In a sign of the lack of confidence in the Tory brand, local leaflets have barely mentioned the Conservative party, or even featured the colour blue. Some Tories regard them as “quasi-Green party” in their appearance. They are also presented in local newspaper format, with one called the “North Yorkshire Chronicle” and another the “North Yorkshire Special”. Sunak, regarded as an electoral asset in the seat, is featured heavily, alongside candidate Claire Holmes.
Labour requires an 18.5% swing to win. The Tory majority at the last election was 20,137. The party’s current record for overturning a Tory majority in a byelection stands at about 15,000, secured in Mid Staffordshire in 1990. That contest was dominated by Margaret Thatcher’s plans to impose the poll tax.
While losing Selby would be bleak for Sunak as the summer recess approaches, some Tory MPs believe they could yet disrupt Labour celebrations by defending the Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat vacated by Johnson. While Labour only needs to overturn a 7,000 majority, the Tories have had some success in focusing the contest on London mayor Sadiq Khan’s ultra-low emissions zone, which affects traffic in the area. “It is tougher than people seem to think,” said one Labour official.
Sunak also faces a third assault from the Liberal Democrats in the south-west seat of Somerton and Frome. It was left vacant when the Tory MP David Warburton resigned, after admitting taking cocaine and drinking “incredibly potent” Japanese whisky. He was also accused of sexual harassment, which he denied.
Lib Dem canvassing data suggests the party is narrowly behind with a few crucial days of campaigning remaining. At the end of last week, insiders claimed the data put the party on 39.5% and the Tories on 42%. Activists claim their biggest remaining challenge is convincing Labour and Green voters to back them to defeat the Tories.
However, officials are optimistic of a win, and internal discussions are now taking place over whether the Lib Dems should rethink their ambitions in the south-west, where they were strong before the coalition government in 2010.
An internal note from party field campaigns director, Dave McCobb, states: “The ease with which people have switched to us in Somerton and Frome, combined with the strong win in Tiverton and Honiton last year, and our unprecedented performance in the May 2022 and 2023 local elections, have convinced me that there is scope to expand our ambitions in our former heartlands in the south-west.”
A Liberal Democrat source said: “If we can win a safe seat like Somerton and Frome, it would send shivers down the spine of Conservative MPs in nearby seats sitting on much smaller majorities. A Lib Dem revival in the west country would be bad news for Rishi Sunak and good news for all those who want to get rid of this Conservative government.”
