Labour risks losing more than half its seats in London at the May local elections, says a leading expert.
Tony Travers, Professor in Local Government at the LSE, believes Sir Keir Starmer’s party could be hit with an even bigger disaster than its recent loss in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
Labour won just over 1,150 seats at the local elections in 2022 when it seized three flagship Tory councils, Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet.
But the party has plummeted in the polls, including in the capital to a record low, and now faces a major threat from the Green Party.
With the May 7 elections looming, Prof Travers told The Standard: “Labour risk losing more than half their seats, which would be 600 or more.
“This would be a worse blow than Gorton and Denton because although Gorton and Denton was a rock-solid safe seat, it was one seat.
“London is 75 (parliamentary constituencies), most of those are Labour.”
In an analysis of the possible outcome of the May elections, which would be a political earthquake in London, Prof Travers said:
* The Green Party under Zack Polanski and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could both ‘easily’ win hundreds of seats.
* The Conservatives, who won 401 seats in 2022, could fall to a new historic low and may see losing less than 100 seats as a “reasonable result”.
* The Tories may seize back Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet from Labour but lose councils in Outer London such as Bexley to Reform, and Bromley to Reform or to No Overall Control (NOC).
* Donald Trump and Israel’s attacks on Iran could damage Labour in contests in the capital against pro-Gaza independents.
* The Liberal Democrats’ “best chance” is in Merton where they might become the biggest party, or possibly gain full control of the council.
* Your Party led by Jeremy Corbyn could work with pro-Gaza independents and the Greens on who is best placed to challenge Labour in particular wards.
Prof Travers highlighted demographic similarities between Gorton and Denton and many parts of London with the “mixture” of affluent middle class areas, a large ethnic population including Muslims, students and white working class communities.
He stressed: “The powerful implication of what happened in Gorton and Denton for Labour in London on May 7 is that in boroughs such as Camden, Islington, Hackney, Newham, Lewisham, Southwark and Lambeth, Haringey perhaps, where there is a large Labour vote that that Labour vote is much less safe than on paper it would appear.
“Many of the voters in those councils are the kind who are likely to switch to the Greens because they can vote against Labour and vote Centre Left at the same time as happened in Gorton and Denton.”
On the prospects for the Greens and Reform, he added: “They could easily win hundreds of seats each in London.”
Reform is ‘likely to do well” in Bexley, Bromley, Hillingdon, Havering, Barking and Dagenham and Sutton, largely boroughs that voted Leave in 2016, and may also pick up seats in Croydon and possibly Barnet, he added.
Prof Travers expects the Tories to lose seats overall.
“The Conservatives are already at their lowest number of seats in London ever,” he said.
“It’s not unimaginable that they could lose Bexley and Bromley but win Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet.
“I think they will consider, if they were only to lose a net 50 to 100 seats in London, that would be a reasonable result for them.”
As happened in Gorton, the Conservatives face a “squeeze” in places such as Merton where the battle for the council is expected to be between Labour and the Lib Dems, or in Ealing where the Tories were once strong.
Voters are trying to “send a message” to the Labour government but also to “vote against Reform” in many cases which is why the Greens are “so attractive” as people can vote anti-Labour but also against Mr Farage.
But in Westminster, Wandsworth and to a lesser extent Barnet “that’s not true,” explained Prof Travers.
“If you want to vote anti-Labour in Westminster and Wandsworth, frankly you have to vote Conservative.”
He believes the Tories are most likely to regain Westminster, then Wandsworth and possibly Barnet, though this could go to NOC after the small swing from Labour to the Conservatives in the polls since 2022.
The Greens could pick up the “odd seat” in Westminster and Wandsworth, he added.
The Lib Dems, who are turning their fire from the Conservatives onto Labour, will win some seats but they “generally underperform in London,” says Prof Travers, with their “best chance” being in Merton where they could emerge as the biggest party or possibly win overall control of the council.
He added: “They used to be the sole party of protest.
“Now there is a smorgasbord of choice when it comes to protest voting and the Lib Dems are clearly the losers from that.”
He believes there will be some co-operation at local level between the Greens, Your Party and pro-Gaza independents over who can best defeat Labour.
“In Islington North, Your Party given Jeremy Corbyn might be the right thing,” he added.
Croydon could become a “patchwork quilt of different colours,” he believes, possibly with Tory, Labour, Reform, Green and Lib Dem councillors.
