- The latest Ipsos poll places Labour on 32 per cent, which Electoral Calculus estimates would yield a 134-seat parliamentary majority under Andy Burnham's leadership.
- Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives have taken second place on 24 per cent, opening up their largest lead over Reform UK since the 2024 general election.
- Reform’s support, meanwhile, has collapsed to 20 per cent following police and parliamentary investigations alongside candidate racism allegations.
- Support for smaller parties has also fallen, with the Liberal Democrats on 9 per cent and the Green Party dropping to 8 per cent.
- Nigel Farage ally Raheem Kassam dismissed the poll results, warning that the UK faces significant capital flight if Reform UK fails to form a government.
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