LABOUR’S lead over the SNP has fallen by six points in the latest General Election poll run by YouGov.
The firm made headlines in late May with a poll that predicted a 10-point lead for Labour, with media reporting that the SNP faced a “rout” and could drop to just 11 seats.
However, a new YouGov poll has found that lead shrink by six points.
Labour are still ahead of the SNP on Westminster voting intention, by 34% to 30% – rather than 39% to 29%.
The poll predicted the Tories would win just 13% of the vote north of the Border, while the LibDems were just one point ahead of Nigel Farage's Reform (8% to 7%).
The Scottish Greens polled at 6% of the vote.
Latest Scotland Westminster voting intention (3-7 June) Lab: 34% (-5 from 13-17 May) SNP: 30% (+1) Con: 13% (+1) Lib Dem: 8% (=) Reform: 7% (+3) Green: 6% (-1)https://t.co/BRKO7sRIzp pic.twitter.com/IIR9dCOrgf
— YouGov (@YouGov) June 18, 2024
The poll also looked at how 2019 voters were switching between parties, and found that just 62% of people who backed the SNP in the last General Election are planning to do so again.
Worryingly for John Swinney's party, one-quarter (24%) of 2019 SNP voters now intend to back Labour.
In contrast, just 8% of 2019 Labour voters are looking to switch to the SNP, while 79% of those who backed Keir Starmer's party in the last General Election plan to do so again.
YouGov noted: "The Conservatives have it even worse, hanging on to only half of their 2019 voters (49%).
"One in five are abandoning the party for Labour (19%) and a similar number for Reform UK (18%), while another 10% are off to the Lib Dems."
The YouGov survey also found that one-third (32%) of people who voted Yes in the 2014 referendum now plan to vote for a Unionist party at the General Election.
Elsewhere, the polling also found a narrowing in the gap between support for the Union and Scottish independence.
The latest YouGov poll suggested 47% would vote Yes in a second referendum while 53% would vote No – a change from 45% to 55% in the firm’s last survey.
YouGov surveyed 1068 adults in Scotland aged 16+ between June 3 and 7 for the poll, meaning other published polls were actually conducted more recently.
A Norstat survey reported over the weekend found that 34% would vote Labour while 30% would vote SNP. Its fieldwork was conducted from June 11 and 14.
And a Survation poll of 22,000 people, conducted between May 31 and June 13, predicted the SNP would win 37 Scottish seats to Labour's 14.
