THE latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll shows there is just a one percentage point difference between support for the Labour and Conservative parties.
The poll showed 34% of people would vote Conservative if a General Election were held tomorrow, whilst 35% would vote Labour.
This marks a two percent point increase for the Conservative Party since the last survey was conducted on 21-22 July, while Labour have dropped four percentage points since then, moving from 39% to 35%.
In February this year, Labour held a nine percentage point lead over the Conservative Party but that has gradually decreased since that time, as Boris Johnson was ousted and Tory talking points have dominated the media due to the leadership contest.
Latest Westminster voting intention (27-28 July) Con: 34% (+2 from 21-22 July) Lab: 35% (-4) Lib Dem: 13% (+1) Green: 7% (-1) Reform UK: 3% (-1) SNP: 5% (+1)https://t.co/y8bHNEDbDM pic.twitter.com/PAPdO8aREc
— YouGov (@YouGov) August 2, 2022
The SNP moved up one point from 4% to 5% which is around about the same result they’ve had since April 2020.
A YouGov report read: “This shrinking of the Labour lead from seven points to one is a sharp move, but the changes are either within the margin of error or close to it.
“It will be worth waiting to see whether further polls in the series replicate the extent of this narrowing of the gap before we can be certain of a Conservative recovery.”
In a post on Twitter, co-founder of research institute J.L. Partners James Johnson said: “The Boris effect is slowly waning.
The Boris effect is slowly waning. I expect the Conservatives will recover their poll lead over Labour once a new leader is appointed - even by quite a significant margin. https://t.co/9o0B0Felvj
— James Johnson (@jamesjohnson252) August 2, 2022
“I expect the Conservatives will recover their poll lead over Labour once a new leader is appointed – even by quite a significant margin.”
Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats held 13% of the vote which marks an increase of one percentage point, with the Greens and Reform UK holding 7% and 3% respectively.
Professor Paul Middleton also commented on the poll, saying: "Latest @YouGov poll suggests @UKLabour lead leaderless @Conservatives by just one point.
Latest @YouGov poll suggests @UKLabour lead leaderless @Conservatives by just one point. May be margin of error noise or an outlier. For what it's worth, the Scotland subsample (*large margin of error*) is: SNP 48% LAB 19% CON 18% GRN 8% LD 5%#indyref2 #ToryLeadershipContest https://t.co/vqNSse8xA5
— Paul Middleton (@ProfPMiddleton) August 2, 2022
"May be margin of error noise or an outlier."
He also summarised a breakdown of the results from Scotland, accounting for a margin of error, which showed the SNP would gain 48% of the vote if the General Election were held tomorrow.
