The “inevitability” of independence has been a key SNP message in recent years. It was linked to the projection of the party’s invincibility. But with its defeat in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection, the forward march of the SNP has been halted.
The SNP’s record in office, the serious issues of internal party management and the failure to confront and address weaknesses in its independence prospectus have caught up with it. It is not inevitable that Scotland’s governing party will lose a large number of seats next year, but it looks increasingly likely.
The SNP was once the insurgent party. It worked hard to convince voters that it would govern competently. It accused Labour of complacency and entitlement, but it has not taken long for these characteristics to become SNP hallmarks.
Much now turns on how the SNP reacts. It faces growing internal dissent. This byelection result should force it to confront shocking allegations of mismanagement and dishonesty, the weaknesses in its independence prospectus and a series of policy failures and fiascos. But there is little sign of that happening.
The SNP meets in conference in just over a week, still assuming that independence is inevitable and all that needs to be decided is what constitutes a mandate to start independence negotiations. It is in danger of looking like a party talking to itself at a time when the cost of living is dominating public concerns.
Meanwhile, Scottish Labour has had to learn to compete for votes in places it had taken for granted in the past. It suited the SNP when the Tories became Scotland’s second party in 2016. Those voters who moved from Labour to the SNP saw independence as the best way to get rid of the Tories. But that electoral buffer has been removed. Labour is a real threat to the SNP in a way the Scottish Tories never were.
Labour’s underlying weaknesses – lacking members, money and ideas – were exposed when voters deserted it for the SNP. In leaked correspondence two decades ago, Wendy Alexander, then one of its brightest leaders, maintained that “one of the last times the Labour movement in Scotland made a real intellectual contribution to the UK Labour party was around the growth of the Independent Labour party in 1906”. It was a harsh, perhaps unfair judgment, but not without some foundation.
But Labour cannot rely only on the SNP’s current difficulties. There is still an absence of the excitement and enthusiasm that Labour generated before 1997. Even if Labour replaces the SNP as Scotland’s largest party next year, it needs to look to the future. Scottish Labour’s immediate challenge is to convince voters that it offers the best prospect for getting rid of the Tories next year. Its long-term objective is to convince voters it has a plan to ensure that Scotland will not feel shut out of UK decision-making, regardless of who is in power at Westminster.
The best way to prevent a future SNP insurgency would be to develop and implement reforms of the UK state – such as replacing the Lords with a senate of regions and nations. The grievances that drive support for the SNP focus on perceptions that Scotland is ignored and dismissed when Conservative governments are in power. Reforms that ensure the diverse nations and regions of the UK do not feel excluded from authoritative decision-making, regardless of who is in power in Westminster, can restore faith and turn Scotland back to Labour in the long term.
James Mitchell is professor of public policy at Edinburgh University
