Labour is doing well, but it could still lose the election. Here are the three big hurdles it must overcome

‘The reemergence of immigration is a major issue which, curiously, Starmer failed to mention in his ‘five national missions’.’ Photograph: Getty images

Labour has staged one of the most impressive recoveries in history. After finding itself outflanked by Nigel Farage’s national populism, then Brexit, and then Boris Johnson, the party now commands a 17-point lead in the polls over the Conservatives, more than enough to win a majority next year.

Other things also seem to be moving Labour’s way. The implosion of the Scottish National party opens the door to a serious Labour recovery there, which, in turn, will make life much easier for the party in non-London England where, remarkably, it has not won the popular vote since 2001.