Support for Labour in London has fallen to a new record low with the Tories pushed into fourth place behind the Greens and Reform UK, according to a new poll.
The Savanta survey for the Mile End Institute, at Queen Mary University of London, revealed how Londoners are turning their back on the traditional two main parties.
The capital has long been a Labour stronghold.
But support for Sir Keir Starmer’s party has now dropped to 31%, down from the previous joint record low in a Savanta poll of 32% in the autumn and May of last year.
It is now also 12 percentage points lower than at the General Election in July 2024 which swept Sir Keir into No10.
Backing for the Conservatives has dropped four points from May last year to 17%.
They are behind Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, up four points to 19% and the Greens, who have risen five points to 18% under new leader Zack Polanski.
The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 13%.
Polls of around 1,000 people have a margin of error of some three per cent, so the Tories, Reform and Greens are all on a similar level.
But the broader picture is of a fracturing of political allegiances in London in a blow to Sir Keir as he fights to stay Prime Minister amid unrest among Labour MPs.
Only 63 per cent of Londoners who voted Labour at the 2024 General Election say they would do so again now as the party has been rocked by a series of controversies including recently Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ handling of her second Budget.
Twelve per cent of 2024 Labour voters in the capital would now back the Greens, eight per cent Reform, six per cent the Lib-Dems, and four per cent the Tories.
Dr Eoghan Kelly, Postdoctoral Researcher in British Politics at Queen Mary University of London, said: “The recent upheaval in long term electoral trends across Britain is increasingly evident in London.
“Both Reform UK and the Greens have now overtaken a Conservative Party which held the mayorship as recently as 2016.
“The continuing decline of Labour will be a cause for alarm for the party as many London seats will come into play on these numbers, with the Greens and Reform poised to benefit.”
Other parties have seen fewer supporters in the capital deserting them, with 85% of Lib-Dem 2024 voters sticking with the party, 83% for Reform and the Greens, and 81% for the Conservatives.
Key issues in the capital highlighted by the poll include:
- Policing, crime and personal safety which was cited by 47% of Londoners as one of the most important issues facing the city
- 38% named the provision of affordable homes
- 31% mentioned the provision of health services
- 28% highlighted levels of taxation
- 24% stressed the affordability of public transport
A separate survey by More in Common suggested Reform UK could win eight seats in London at the next General Election, with Labour losing 12, and the Tories gaining four overall.
* Savanta interviewed 1,006 Londoners aged 18+ online between December 15 and 21. Data are weighted.
